Morgan's Riflemen

Is Hanger "Republican Enough" for the 24th?

2006-08-28T15:39:00.000-05:00

That’s the question posed by Chris Graham of the Augusta Free Press in this article.

According to the article it seems as though hanger may not be “Republican enough.”

Arin Sime, a resident of Albemarle County has announced that he will seek the nomination next spring. Sime is unsure if he will run as a Republican or as a Libertarian.

Hanger has been around long enough to read the writing on the wall. He was quoted as saying;

“There's an interesting dynamic out there. Some of the antitax groups in particular, and there are a number of different iterations of that that are not necessarily Republicans at all, but they have influence within the Republican Party, are making it almost the accepted norm to have intraparty fights. You're seeing that in Northern Virginia, for example. Down here, I think there are some individuals who might like to have an intraparty contest - but I don't know whether that will develop or not. I'd say that it's at least a possibility……With some of these groups, if you're not pure enough, they want to kick you out of the Republican Party. I certainly don't want to see that type of attitude creep into Valley politics. It's really a minority-party mentality, when you get right down to it. But we are seeing more and more of that these days."

Too add a bit of irony to the story, Steven Sisson, who lost to Hanger in 2003 as a conservative Democrat was quoted as saying, “A number of Republicans have asked me if I would consider switching parties and challenging Emmett in a primary.”

Hmmmm – does that make the Republican’s who supposedly asked Sission (a Democrat) to run “Republican enough?”

Real Estate Economics 101

2006-08-27T15:02:00.000-05:00

I came across this little piece about real estate economics over at CnnMoney.com and thought it worthy of passing along to other bloggers.

Per the article;

Myth #1: As long as job growth is strong, prices can't go down

The argument that prices can't fall in a good job market doesn't make economic sense: To be sure, a strong employment picture helps demand. But if far more houses are pouring onto the market than can be absorbed by households lured by the new jobs, and if the sellers are pressured to sell, prices will fall.

That's precisely what's happening now in good job markets such as San Diego and Northern Virginia. In this boom, prices soared to such extraordinary levels that builders kept churning out new homes, and owners of existing houses threw a record number of units on the market to cash out. The supply grew so fast that demand, even in strong job markets, simply couldn't keep up.

Myth #2: The builders learned their lesson in the last downturn. They won't swamp the market with new houses when the market turns

Builders are still pouring out near-record numbers of new homes as sales decline, assuring a further fall in prices. "Buyers" are walking away from deposits on houses that were supposedly pre-sold, forcing developers to throw them back on the market at a discount.

The problem is that even now, margins on new homes are still pretty good, though well below the levels of a year ago. As a result, builders will just keep building until those big margins evaporate. High prices are sewing the seeds of their own demise. They always do.

Myth #3: Low interest rates will keep values rising, or at the very least, put a floor under prices

What really matters for all assets, whether it's houses, stocks or bonds, is real interest rates - in other words, nominal rates after subtracting inflation. And real rates fell sharply starting in 2001. That caused a legitimate, one-time increase in housing prices.

The rub is that prices rose far more than could ever be justified by declining mortgage rates. That's where the bubble kicked in. Today's relatively low rates are not, and never were, a reason why prices would keep rising. Once real rates drop and stabilize, the impetus goes away - again, the gain is a one-time, not a recurring, phenomenon.

Today, real 10-year rates are still extremely low. They have nowhere to go but up. When the one-time gain of 2001-2004 reverses, housing prices could take a further hit.

By the way, a decline in rates due to a fall in inflation isn't the boom to real estate it's advertised to be. Sure, rates go down, but workers also receive lower raises. So the fall in rates turns out to be a wash. As for what matters - real rates - what goes down later goes up, and housing prices go in the other direction, namely south.

Myth #4: Restriction on development in the suburbs ensure low supply, and guarantee rising prices

This argument ignores that the tough zoning laws and anti-development fervor have been a feature of America's tony towns since the early 1970s. The "not in my town" phenomenon is nothing new.

Sure, it's still difficult to get new building permits in suburbs of New Jersey, New York, Washington, Seattle and San Francisco. But America's housing market is extremely fluid. People move farther from job centers, and commute longer hours, to get bargains where housing is plentiful. Then the jobs move to the areas with the cheap houses. People in their 50s and 60s cash out early in San Diego and buy a bigger house for half the money in Texas or South Carolina.

And the cities are just as enthusiastic about developing blighted areas with new, tax-paying high-rises as the suburbs are slamming the door. In the New York area, Brooklyn, Jersey City and Hoboken - and even Manhattan - are sprouting more new housing than in decades, despite a job market that's hardly robust.

A year ago, the reigning clich was that real estate had entered a new world of "no supply." Now, a record 3.85 million homes are up for sale, and buyers are getting scarce.

Americans for Prosperity Statewide Tour

2006-08-25T19:30:00.000-05:00

Americans for Prosperity stopped by the Museum of The Shenandoah Valley on Thursday as part of their Taxpayer Trust Tour. AFP is a group that monitors pork barrel spending at the state and federal level.

If you are interested in more info. on AFP they can be found on the web at http://www.americansforprosperity.org

The Winchester Star covered their stop in Winchester.

Highlights from the article:

“Spending in The Commonwealth has increased 111% over the past 10 years while the population has grown only 12%.”

“$37 million in direct funding was given to more than 300 museums, theaters, tourist attractions, and other projects in Virginia this year. The group figures more than $200 million have gone to projects over the past decade.”

“$87,500 was given to the Virginia Museum of Transportation — a point she finds ironic, given the General Assembly was involved in its longest budget stalemate because of transportation issues.”

I wish AFP the best of luck in their mission – as far as I can tell their going to need it.

Impact Fees vs. Proffers

2006-08-23T16:05:00.000-05:00

The Winchester Star has a nice little piece on what a locality can do in terms of imposing impact fees or proffers.

Frederick County, it seems, is interested in using impact fees for transportation improvements instead of proffers for new developments.

The article points out that, “According to state law, counties can impose transportation impact fees on new development instead of proffers, but not both. The county can still receive proffers for parks and recreation, fire and rescue, and other uses.”

Furthermore, “The fees cannot be used to fix existing conditions and can only be used on secondary roads, which are those designated as Route 600 or higher.”

Frederick County had an opportunity to get the low-down on impact fees by officials from Stafford County.

Stafford County had to do several things in order to start collecting the fees including, “data collection, analysis, choose projects, set up an advisory committee, work out a fee schedule, set up a designated area where the fees would be applicable, hold a public hearing, adopt an ordinance, establish a collection process, and establish an appeal process.”

Finally, “According to state law, all projects must begin construction within 10 years or the money is returned to those who had to pay the impact fee.”

One thing the article missed, and something I would like to know is why one is better than the other. Does anyone know? Can a locality get more money via impact fees as opposed to proffers?

HobNob In The Valley

2006-08-17T07:57:00.000-05:00

The cast of characters for the 2006 edition of The HobNob in The Valley is quickly coming together.

This year’s event will be held at the Winchester Medical Center’s Bernard J. Dunn School of Pharmacy on Sept. 8.

Notably absent, at least for now are Sen. George Allen and his opponent James Webb.

In no particular order, the list of attendees are (drum roll, please);

- U.S. Rep. Frank R. Wolf

- Democrat Judy M. Feder (Wolf’s opponent)

- Libertarian Wilber Woods III (Wolf’s opponent)

-Independent Green Neeraj C. Nigam (Wolf’s opponent)

-Independent Glenda Gail Parker (running against Sen. George Allen)

-Gov. Timothy M. Kaine

-Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell

-Former Lt. Gov. John Hager (current assistant secretary in the Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services)

-Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., R-Winchester

-Del. Beverly J. Sherwood, R-Frederick County.

The Winchester Star has the complete story, here.

NO! Charter School Application Rejected in Loudon County

2006-08-10T15:13:00.000-05:00

The Loudoun County School Board shot down the idea of opening the counties first charter school by a vote of 9-0. The Leesburg Today has the story here.

A group called the Blue Hills Foundation submitted the application for a Science and Mathematics Academy in LC.

The Blue Hills Foundation website says that, "Blue Hills Foundation, a Virginia Nonprofit Corporation is facilitating better and competitive educational platforms by means of initiating curriculums, and institutions. We promote educational opportunities for the children of Northern Virginia."

Apparently, the groups application needed some work. One school board member, John A. Andrews (Potomac), "told the Blue Hills Foundation to withdrawn the application, rework it and then resubmit it, but the group didn’t listen to his advice. He said he was hoping for a stronger application for Loudoun’s first charter school."

Well, better luck next time, I guess.

IMHO, charter schools will become more popular in the future. If a few are allowed to open and are successful then I think the trend will catch on.

Minimum Wage......$7.25?

2006-07-27T20:20:00.000-05:00

It appears as though the Republican controlled House of Representatives has stolen a play from the Dem's playbook. They appear to be set to pass legislation that would increase the federal minimum wage to $7.25.

A person making the minimum wage earns $10,700/year at the current level, which is below the federal poverty level.

The article states that, "Inflation has eroded the minimum wage's buying power to the lowest level in about 50 years".

Of course, there looks like there will be a fight over the issue.

The Dem's think that, "Republicans planned to add "poison pills" for their business allies", while the Conservative Republican's think that, "Quickly increased labor costs unrelated to business conditions will encourage or force employers to fire employees, reduce working hours for existing employees, and/or postpone plans to hire additional employees".

Election ploy or not, the cost of living is at an all time high. A dollar simply doesn't go as far as it once did. I'd say it's time to seriously consider raising the minimum wage.

Is Your Home Overpriced?

2006-07-26T15:00:00.000-05:00

Check out this article and spreadsheet from CnnMoney.com regarding housing prices.

I'd hate to be living in CA.....it takes up 9 out of the top 10 overpriced markets.

-The Washington DC/Arlington market is 37% overpriced according to CnnMoney.com.

-Virginia Beach-Norfolk comes in at 16% overpriced.

-The Richmond market comes is at 7% overpriced but is still considered a fair value.

If your looking for a deal, you will need to move to Texas. El Paso comes in at 26% undervalued.

So Much For the Cheap Commute

2006-07-24T14:57:00.000-05:00

Toll Road Investors Partnership II (TRIP) is proposing to increase the toll on the Dulles Greenway to $4.80 by 2012. Trucks may pay twice as much.

The Leesburg Today has the story, here.

hmmm, I wonder what the cost of gas will be in 2012? Or, I wonder what the property taxes will be in Loudoun County in 2012.

Who knows, at least we know what it's going to cost to ride on the Dulles Greenway.

Mark Tate: Better Late Than Never

2006-07-20T12:59:00.000-05:00

Republican candidate Mark Tate, who is running for the State Senate from the 27th District, hasn’t filed a campaign report in (gulp) THREE YEARS! The seat is currently held by Sen. Russ Potts.

So what? Who cares? What’s the big deal?

Well, according to Chris Piper of the Virginia State Board of Elections, “State law will prohibit him from gaining access to the ballot until such time that these reports are filed.”

Tate has not filed a campaign finance report since July 2003. Because he has not filed the SBE has fined him $500.

For more info. check out this article from The Winchester Star. It has a good analysis of the fundraising activity from the other candidates in the race, Jill Holtzman Vogel and Sen. Russ Potts.

Holtzman reported a balance of $200,711.19 in her June 30th report while Potts’s reported ending balance is $42,927.44. Tate says his ending balance was $190,566.14.

Most observers expect another brutal primary battle between Holtzman and Tate (Potts has not decided if he’s going to run again).

If Tate can keep up with Holtzman in fundraising this could turn out to be an interesting race to watch (If he can file his reports on time).

Sen. Russ Potts has a New Job

2006-07-20T08:39:00.000-05:00

Sen. Russ Potts has accepted a new job with the Winchester Public School System. Check it out here and here.

Potts will receive a $75,000/year as the Director for the John Handley High School Capital Campaign. His goal is to raise $3 million to $5 million that will go towards the renovation of John Handley High School in Winchester, VA.

Potts doesn’t feel that there is a conflict of interest between his new job and his Chairmanship of the Senate Education and Health Committee.

Neither does Sen. Ken Stolle, “Offhand, I would say there is probably not a conflict, and the reason I would say there is not a conflict is that we currently have teachers that are serving in the General Assembly.”

However, some folks may take issue with the fact that Potts campaign for Governor is still $183,000 in the red. Read more here.

In either case, it looks like Potts will be a full-time fundraiser.

10th District Drama

2006-07-10T21:34:00.000-05:00

Ya gotta love this…

The Leesburg Today is reporting that Heidi Stirrup, who lost her bid to be Chairman of the 10th District GOP Committee, is going to challenge the result of the election to the state central committee in Richmond.

At the convention Stirrup attempted to remove folks “from the credentials report who had supported Sen. Russ Potts’ (R-27) independent bid for governor, Leslie Byrne’s (D) bid for Lieutenant Governor or County Chairman Scott K. York’s independent bid, among others.”

To me, this seems to be a moot point because Stirrup lost the election by almost 60/40. In other words, did that many folks on the credentials report support Potts, Byrne, or York?

Of course, no one knew what the results of the election would be prior to the so-called “inconsistencies relating to parliamentary procedure”, but now that it’s over one would think you could determine if the supporters of non-republican candidates actually had an impact. Did they?

If they didn’t then I would have to agree with J. Warren Geurin’s comment, “It’s 24 pages of sore losership…This idea that every vote hollered from floor has to be recognized is just crazy.”

Stirrup claims that, “the nominating convention was fraught with inconsistencies relating to parliamentary procedure. Motions from the floor, for instance, to alter the credentials report—who could be a delegate—were either not recognized or ruled out of order.”

Full disclosure; I wasn’t at the convention, but I was told by folks who supported Jim Rich & Heidi Stirrup that it was a fiasco.

Mark Tate Will Run For 27th District Senate Seat in 2007

2006-07-06T16:57:00.000-05:00

It's official.

Mark Tate will again seek the Republican nomination for the 27th District Senate Seat. Click here to read more from the Winchester Star.

Tate will face at least one challenger for the seat. Jill Holtzman Vogel announced waaaay back that she will also seek the nomination. Holtzman hopes to have a war chest of $320,000 by July 17th.

In the Winchester Star article Tate said that he wants to raise $350,000 to $400,000.

This is shaping up to be a fun race to watch for several reasons.

First, the incumbent, Sen. Russ Potts has not made up his mind if he's going to run again. In the article, Potts said, “I am going to make up my mind on my timetable.......There is no sense of urgency on my part to do that.”

Second, no Democrat has announced. I fully expect a Democrat from the eastern part of the district to be on the ballot.

IMHO, Potts will not seek the Republican nomination. He's much more likely to run as an Independent or switch parties and run as a Democrat. Or, he could simply retire (yeah, right).

Holtzman-Vogel clearly has a monetary advantage over Tate. If Tate can’t raise some dough he’s doomed.

Taking all that into account, my prediction is a 3-way race with Potts being on the ballot as an Independent.

Can Feder Beat Wolf?

2006-07-05T13:58:00.000-05:00

I ran across this article in today's addition of the Leesburg Today. It's a good read for anyone that lives in the 10th District.

It poses an interesting question; can Democratic candidate Judy Feder oust incumbent Frank Wolf for the 10th District Congressional seat?

Feder believes she has some momentum on her side. "Feder said from her small campaign office in Sterling, the 10th District’s decades-long support for Republican candidates is waning. Not only did Gov. Timothy Kaine (D) win in the district, something his uber-popular predecessor Mark Warner couldn’t do, but also a moderate challenger ousted longtime Republican Del. Dick Black (R-32). Del. Dave Poisson (D-32) and Del. Chuck Caputo (D-67) and have joined Sen. Mark Herring (D-33) in Richmond to give at least portions of the 10th District a bluer shade of representation."

Wolf's response, “Every time I’ve won, I’ve run based on what I have done and how I have done it,” Wolf said. “Transportation, I got the rail system authorized. Who started the gang task force? Who did Gov. Warner thank with regard to the gang effort?”

An interesting little tidbit from the article mentions that Wolf has raised 79 percent of his funds in Virginia, while Feder has raised 86 percent of her funds out of state.

Anything is possible, but it would be nothing short of a miracle for Feder to win this race. Sure, she might do well in the eastern part of the district, but she has a long way to go in the western part of the 10th District.

I personally have not seen a single thing from the Feder campaign. No signs, no stickers, no mailers, no e-mails, nothing.

It’s still early but if your going to beat a 25-year incumbent you need to bring whatever it is you have hard, heavy and often.

Quick, Call $911.00

2006-06-27T08:23:00.000-05:00

A hot topic of discussion the past few months has been the City of Winchester’s decision to start charging folks who are taken to the hospital by the local EMS.

By collecting this fee, it is estimated the city will generate an additional $900,000 per year.

Here is the cost breakdown; $300 for basic life support transports, $355 for advance life support I, $510 for advance life support II transfers, and $9 per loaded mile. For more info. check out this article from The Winchester Star.

It has been stated since the beginning that anyone who cannot afford this new fee will not be charged. Medicare will pay “most” of these situations. Anyone who has private health insurance will be covered by their policy.

If your someplace in between Medicare and a private insurance policy, I don’t know what will happen. Are you automatically covered by Medicare? I don't know the answer.

An estimated 50 million Americans are without health insurance. Many are middle class folks with jobs.

I just hope that "most" of these folks are covered.

Lights, Camera, VDOT!

2006-06-21T08:16:00.000-05:00

Interested in viewing current traffic conditions on your home computer?

Take a peek at http://www.virginiadot.org/comtravel/eoc/eoc-mainWEbcams.asp

VDOT has placed a series of web cams up and down the I-81 corridor, as well as several other places throughout The Commonwealth so travelers can look at real time images of current traffic conditions.

The cost of the project was $1.5 million.

The benefit? It’s hard to say at this point.

As traffic management technology continues to evolve, I am sure the cameras will play a vital role.

For example, maybe someday GPS navigation systems could be made to display Internet feeds, or use the information in the feeds or on the web to re-route a traveler around traffic accidents, etc. Some GPS systems probably already do this, but they are out of reach for most drivers.

Maybe it wouldn’t be a bad idea to mandate that all new cars be required to have GPS systems in them…….

Candidates for the Winchester City Council……

2006-06-15T17:31:00.000-05:00

Below is a breakdown of the folks who will be seeking election to the Winchester City Council in November.

To see a map (.pdf file) of the new voting Wards, please click here.

Also, The Wednesday, June 14, 2006 edition of The Winchester Star has good coverage of the races.

I must say that I was somewhat surprised that there are only two competitive races on the ballot.

But, all in all the change to a 4-Ward system is good for the City of Winchester. Different areas of the city have different needs and a 4-Ward system will do a better job of representing those areas.

Ward 1

-Philip E. Pate (D)

-Jeffrey B. Buettner (R)

Ward 2

-Evan Clark (D)

-Unchallenged

Ward 3

-Vincent A. Di Benedetto (R)

-Art Major (D)

Ward 4

-Michael L. Butler (R)

- Unchallenged.

Hey, I Was Right!

2006-06-13T20:53:00.000-05:00

See yesterday's post.

My Prediction - Webb would win with 54% of the vote.

Actual - Webb won with 53.47%

Turnout Prediction - 3%

Actual - 3.5%

Not bad if I don't say so myself. And, I still maintain that Webb’s biggest advantage over Miller was the Democratic Virginia Blogosphere.

So, when is the first Allen/Webb debate?

And please, whoever the hell is in charge, please leave Larry Sabato out of the mix!

Start Your Engines; It’s Going To Be Webb vs. Allen

2006-06-12T08:09:00.000-05:00

That’s my prediction.

Turnout in tomorrow’s statewide Democratic primary will be around 3% and James Webb will win the day with 54% of the vote.

I’d also add that one of Webb’s biggest allies during his brief political career has been the Democratic Virginia Blogosphere.

It’s the reason he’s going to win tomorrow.

The Secret $440,000 Study In Augusta County

2006-06-09T15:49:00.000-05:00

Folks in the southern part of the Shenandoah Valley, Augusta County to be specific, are chomping-at-the-bit to know why the Augusta County Board of Supervisors spent $440,000 on a “secret” study for a proposed industrial mega-site that will encompass 1,600 acres and consume millions of gallons of water. If built, the site would occupy pristine farmland in the heart of The Valley.

The Staunton News Leader has provided the best coverage of the issue. Here are a few links.

The rumor is (and I stress rumor) Toyota is considering the site for a manufacturing facility.

Like all localities, Augusta County must make a choice between saving fertile farmland and re-zoning the land in order to attract good paying jobs, which the county currently lacks.

Those opposed to the project feel like they have been duped by the BOS because the study was done in secret, with little or no public involvement.

On the other hand, there are the folks in Augusta County who long for the good paying jobs a company like Toyota will bring.

Let’s face it, not everyone will inherit a 300-acre farm that has been in a family for generations.

I’d say the BOS is doing the right thing by trying to attract good paying jobs to Augusta County and doing the wrong thing by trying to do it in secrect.

Perhaps, the BOS could save a lot of time and heartache by telling everyone two things:

1) What company is considering locating in Augusta County?

2) Why did this have to be done in secrect?

Housing....Bing, Bang, Bust!

2006-06-06T14:01:00.000-05:00

As most folks probably know, the once hot real estate market has seen a significant cool down over the past several months, particularly in NOVA, the economic engine of The Commonwealth.

As I have stated previously, I work in a real estate related field where I get to work with both Realtors and homeowners and I have had the opportunity to see things play-out first hand – from ground zero if you will.

Today, while out in the “field”, I had a very in-depth conversation with a Realtor and here are a few things that were mentioned:

-In the community of Lansdowne, located near Leesburg, VA, there is a 55-month supply of unsold homes. Yes, folks, that’s 4.5 YEARS worth of inventory.

-Several of the companies that are responsible for placing “For Sale” signs in the front of homes have run out of wood to make the signs.

-If you have an open house don’t expect anyone to show-up.

-Most sellers are moving out of the area. For the most part, they are heading south.

I did some further research and found this piece written by Gary Shilling on my favorite business website, http://www.forbes.com/ (I urge you to read the entire piece.). Among the things Mr. Shilling points out:

“This is the first nationwide housing bubble since the 1920s, and it's driven by three nationwide forces: low interest rates, loose lending practices and the desperate search for a stock substitute after the 2000--02 debacle. Previous real estate bubbles were regional, spurred by economic cycles like the rise and fall of the oil patch in the 1970s and 1980s, and southern California's aerospace leap in the late 1980s during the Reagan defense buildup, ending with the Cold War's demise.”

“A house-price collapse will be far worse than the 2000--02 bear market on Wall Street and will bring a serious global recession. Half of households own stocks or mutual funds, but 69% own homes. The resulting unemployment will kill many subprime borrowers' ability to make payments.”

“Even a 20% price decline will be devastating for many homeowners. On average, those with mortgages have 37% equity in their abodes. Of those who borrowed or refinanced in 2005, 29% have zero or negative equity, calculates First American Real Estate Solutions.”

Legislators in Richmond take note. We may not need all that money for roads after all.

Community Development Authorities, Who Really Benefits?

2006-05-29T14:55:00.000-05:00

I actually laughed out loud while reading this article in the 5/28/06 addition of the WAPO regarding a proposed Community Development Authority (CDA) for the Route 50 corridor in Loudoun County.

To summarize the article, a Community Development Authority is basically a relatively new tool that developers can use to pay for infrastructure improvements such as roads, schools, parks, etc.

But here’s the catch – developers really don’t pay anything at all. They issue tax-free government bonds to get the cash needed to build the infrastructure that will be needed to support the new development. In this case it’s 15,000 new homes.

So, who pays? Property owners who live within the CDA pay the bonds back. The WAPO states, “On top of their county real estate taxes, most property owners within the developments would pay an annual fee for 30 years -- as much as $1,900 for each home -- to pay off the bonds that would finance the improvements.”

Loudoun Supervisor Jim Burton sums it up best when he said, “The citizens who buy those homes will be burdened with an additional tax over and above the regular property tax…It's an unfair additional burden when other citizens and residents in the county will get to use the facilities that that tax district would fund." Right on, brother.

Greenvest, the company proposing to build the houses under the CDA says that folks opposed to growth can't have it both ways. In other words they can’t complain that developers don't pay their way -- and complain when they do. That’s not much of an argument if you ask me because the property owners are the ones who are paying.

CDA’s are only good for one entity in the equation; in this case it’s the developers. If there is any benefit to the taxpayer, I’d like to know what it is.

Good Bye Open Primary, Hello Supreme Court?

2006-05-24T13:25:00.000-05:00

I recently read several posts about a lawsuit challenging Virginia's "Open Primary" statute.

They can be found here (The Jaded JD) and here (Not Larry Sabato).

The case has not yet been decided, and I may be jumping the gun, but if The Commonwealth no longer has open primaries, does that mean all races will be convention-style elections?

As a taxpayer, aren't my constitutional rights being violated if a party holds a primary using taxpayer dollars and then doesn't allow a citizen to vote?

What about Independent voters? Will they be forced to register by party? Or, are you saying that the only way to remain an Independent voter is to exclude yourself from primary elections? Again, the same question arises, why should Independent voters' tax dollars go to pay for a party primary that they can't vote in?

It would seem to me that the only solution is for political party's to have a convention style nomination. And, most importantly PAY FOR IT THEMSELVES.

Stuck Behind The Speaker (Howell)

2006-05-17T18:26:00.000-05:00

I picked this up over at Bacon's Rebellion, Bacon's Rebellion: Another Day, Another Diatribe and I found this link rather interesting, http://stuckbehindthespeaker.blogspot.com/

Welcome to the Va. Blogosphere!

No More Meter Maids!

2006-05-16T16:09:00.000-05:00

Perhaps the best editorial in months to appear in The Winchester Star ran this past Saturday.

The issue? Parking meters. Specifically, why they should be removed from historic downtown Winchester.

The Winchester Old Town Development Board would like the Winchester City Council to consider removing parking meters from the downtown area. IMHO, this is a great idea for several reasons.

First, downtown merchants face stiff competition from big box retailers where the parking is free. When was the last time you had to pay to park at Wal-Mart?

Second, if you do get a ticket for a parking violation the fine is only $6.00 or something like that……if you pay the fine within 24 hours. If you don’t pay it within 24 hours the fine goes up to $25 dollars. Violators are left with a “gotcha” feeling when they pick up their ticket and read the fine print because most people can’t make it to the police station within 24 hours to pay the fine. Getting a ticket also makes you think twice about going downtown to do business.

That can't be good for downtown merchants. Patrons are left saying, "why not go to a big box store? After all, the parking is free."

Sadly, as of this posting, no City Council member wants to push for removal of the meters. Hopefully, that will change.

Jill Holtzman Vogel - 27th District Digest 3.0

2006-05-10T17:07:00.000-05:00

Upon entering my house this afternoon and looking in the mailbox, I noticed a nice, slick, 4-page flyer and knew almost immediately it was the long awaited "District Digest" sent out by the Jill Holtzman Campaign.

For those that don't know, Jill is running for the 27th District Senate seat currently held by Sen. Russ Potts. The election is in November of 2007 and this is the third mailing the campaign has sent out.

This mailer, like many, is mostly fluff. However, we were given some insight into what Holtzman might do if she were to be elected State Senator for the 27th District - or were we?

Case in point; On Taxes Jill says:

Now, call me crazy, but I would like to know how Holtzman plans to fix the worst transportation and education crisis in the Commonwealth's history. I didn't see anything specifically mentioned in the mailer. If elected, will she cut spending? If so, where will she trim the budget?

On Growth:

Again, she makes many valid points but it's the same old, same old. I need specifics, which are noticeably absent.

The other notable part of the mailer is Holtzman's Exploratory Committee. Wow! It's a who's who of 27th District Republican's. I know some folks were thinking of challenging her in the primary, but perhaps they should think again. I mean, who's not on the committee? Well, the only three I noticed were Mark tate, Phil Griffin and Sen. Russ Potts but it's still early.

I still maintain that a moderate Democrat could give her a tough race. However, the Democratic Party in the 27th is pitifully organized so that's not likely to happen.

Stay tuned for District Digest Volume 4. Hopefully, it will contain more specifics on what Holtzman will do if elected.

To Dig or Not To Dig

2006-05-08T12:57:00.000-05:00

The WAPO has a great graphic regarding the proposed tunnel that may or may not be dug under Tysons Corner for the Dulles Rail Project. Take a peek, here.

The page also has a list of various groups associated with the project and where they stand on the issue.

To see another map of the area, check this out.

I can't imagine the long-term maintenance costs on a tunnell are less than that of an elevated track but I could be wrong.

METRO historically has a very bloated maintenance budget and never seems to have enough money for maintenance so you would think that in the long run it would be wise to try and reduce those maintenance costs. That said build it above ground.

Latino Workers In The Valley - They Matter

2006-05-03T12:43:00.000-05:00

So, how much do businesses in the Shenandoah Valley depend on Latino workers?

Well, based on this article from the Staunton News Leader quite a lot. Although no businesses featured in the article had to shut down for the day, the article points to something that everyone should take note of, particularly politicians and folks involved in campaigning - These folks are organized!

I am not sure who’s in charge of their grassroots campaign but they have created one that easily rivals that of both major parties in the U.S.

Is anyone taking notes on this phenomenon?

Frederick County - No Tax Increase in 2007

2006-05-01T15:22:00.000-05:00

Residents of Frederick County don't have to worry about a tax increase from their local government in FY 2007 and I wish Winchester residents could say the same.

This article from the Winchester Star has all the details on the County's budget. One thing that jumped out at me was that last year's budget increased by $27,402,953 in the county and there was still no need to increase taxes.

Also, as a follow-up to a previous post by Wild Turkey (Who Thinks Taxes are #1? Wednesday, April 12, 2006) it appears as though the local Republican Party had very little to say about the tax increase that's going to be imposed on the citizens of Winchester by City Council.

The Republican Party, particularly at the state level seems to sing a different tune when other tax increases are proposed - just ask Senator Russ Potts about the reception he receives when the words "tax increase" are mentioned.

At it's Tuesday, April 11, 2006 meeting the Winchester City Council voted 12-1 to raise the real estate tax by 6 cents per each $100 of assessed property value or 9.5%. Instead of the 4th lowest tax rate among independent cities in the Commonwealth Winchester now has the 5th lowest. For more info, click here.

The only member to vote against the tax increase was Stewart R. Masters, a Republican.

In many ways Winchester has what can best be described as a “lame duck” City Council. The reason for that is due to the fact that the number of people who serve on the City Council will be reduced from its current 13 members to 9 members. So, it’s likely that several people who voted in favor of the tax increase will never be on the ballot again – thus the term “lame duck”.

But, more to the point - if the Republican Party is going to chastise elected officials such as Senator Potts for voting in favor of a tax increase it should also do the same to local elected officials.

Thus far, I haven’t heard a peep.

Page County - A $34 Million Dump for the President's Brother

2006-04-25T13:09:00.000-05:00

I get a google news alert each day on the "Shenandoah Valley".

Today, this interesting article appeared in my inbox and I thought I would share it with fellow bloggers.

It appears as though President Bush's brother, Marvin Bush, is partner and co-founder of the venture capital firm, Winston Partners, out of McLean, Virginia.

Marvin's company purchased Tellurian, Page County’s waste management and landfill operator for the Battle Creek landfill. FYI - the Page County landfill accepts garbage from out of state, like many other landfills in the state.

The article states, "The permit for the Battle Creek landfill allows for 250 tons of garbage per day. The expected carry capacity for an 18-wheeler is about 20 tons, so 250 tons a day would bring a dozen big trucks every day into the Battle Creek facility. "

Apparently, "an under-the-counter deal was made between some Page County supervisors and Tellurian to illegally accept delivery of 1,500 tons/day at the Battle Creek landfill. The DEQ in Richmond, the Governor’s office (at the time this was Governor Mark Warner, now a 2008 Democratic presidential aspirant, and his Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore) and others were aware of the deal."

The article goes onto say that, " An illegal "amendment" to the Page County contract with Tellurian – increasing the garbage deliveries to 1,500 tons a day – was physically signed by the local County supervisors on 14 December 2001. Within hours of this illegal amendment, Tellurian was purchased by Winston Partners. Several months later, Tellurian was renamed National Waste Services of Virginia. Over-dumping continued, with help from the Virginia DEQ and the governor’s office for nearly two years.

And…"Upon the closure of the landfill, Marvin Bush’s NWS sued Page County supervisors. The lawsuit alleged that the closure violated the contract and had pushed NWS into bankruptcy. Even though Page County had the right to end the contract without penalty at any time, Page County supervisors agreed not only to have the County’s taxpayers clean up the environmental mess made at the Battle Creek Landfill, but for them to pay NWS’s landfill related debts.

Marvin Bush owed another company, Capitol Source, $34 million as a result of the alleged bankruptcy of NWS. Even though the court imposed no criminal or civil penalties, the settlement agreement deemed that Marvin Bush would receive $34 million, and that he would receive Battle Creek landfill profits until the debt is totally paid.

The general saga has been reported here and here. It is also well known to federal investigators.”

Here's the best part, "In sum, Page County is handing over the first $34 million of profits from the recently re-opened Battle Creek landfill to Marvin Bush. Presumably, the bribes paid by NWS and Winston Partners to the various government officials – both Democrat and Republican – are covered by the $34 million.

One would think that this is enough criminality for local and state government. But there’s more! It is a Class IV felony – a crime – to falsify County financial records. Yet, according to the Page County Treasurer, the County financial records do not show the huge debt to Winston Partners. This debt, and the destination of years of future profits from the Page County landfill, remains hidden from taxpayers. "

I am not familiar with the situation, so if anyone has any extra information, please chime in and enlighten us all.

The Shenandoah River One of the Most Polluted in the Nation

2006-04-23T12:38:00.000-05:00

The environmental group American Rivers has named The Shenandoah River one of the most polluted in the nation - the fifth most polluted to be exact.

This is not good news.

I own a cabin on The Shenandoah below Front Royal and felt things were getting better. I remember how bad things were when the Avtex Fibers plant was still open and dumping their toxic waste into the river. Fishing was terrible (you still shouldn't eat the fish from the Shenandoah), and wildlife was disappearing. In recent years, I felt that things were on a comeback - fishing had picked back up and you were seeing different types of wildlife reappear. I believe there have even been a few bald eagle spotting.

For those that don't know the history of the Avtex Fibers plant, click here. To make a long story short, the Avtex plant was designated a "Superfund" site by the EPA. The EPA reserves the term "Superfund" for the most urgent environmental clean-up spots. I believe the entire clean-up process at the Avtex site took about 15 years from start to finish.

American Rivers had this to say about the state of The Shenandoah;

"One of America's most storied rivers, the peaceful Shenandoah is facing an onslaught of development that threatens the tranquility and clean water that have attracted people to the river for centuries. County governments along the Shenandoah have a rapidly-closing window to get a handle on runaway development before it changes the character of the river and valley forever. "

Let's hope our County governments take note of this sooner rather than later.

Who Has the Best Polling Data?

2006-04-18T20:07:00.000-05:00

This is a follow-up post to Wild Turkey's, "Approval Ratings for Gov. Kaine" on April 15th.

After looking at the poll I began wondering what each side in the Transportation debate is getting in regards to polling data. We all know the House and Senate, or some group on their behalf, is taking polls to see where the public stands on the issue of a tax increase for transportation. And I am not referring to some poll on a website, I am talking about a serious scientific poll with deep cross-tabs.

Since they are so far apart on a compromise, they must be getting mixed polling data, right? The question then becomes, how much different is Sen. Chichester’s polling data from Speaker Howell’s and why? Or, are the numbers so close that each side is willing to bet the farm on their position?

So, who has the best polling data?

I have no idea what the answer is, so I figured I would throw it out there for fellow bloggers to think about and respond.

Just a side note...

2006-04-17T18:35:00.000-05:00

MARKET ALERT
From The Wall Street Journal. April 17, 2006
Crude-oil prices settled $1.08 higher at an all-time high of $70.40 a barrel onthe New York Mercantile Exchange, lifted by concerns over declining gasolinestocks in the U.S., supply disruptions in Nigeria and tension over Iran'snuclear program.

Oil prices were at all time highs last year about the same time, then again after the hurricanes this fall. The only difference is the highs then were the low to mid 60's, now the highs are the low 70's. Let's hope we don't have a bad hurricane season in the gulf this fall or we are going to see $75-$80 dollar a barrel oil. This is going to send gas prices easily over $4 dollars a gallon probably closer to $5 dollars a gallon. Who's looking forward to ethanol and bio-diesel now? Hell, I'd settle for an old fashioned diesel engine at this point. You know they say riding a bike is a great way to lose weight. I better get one with the dual shock system and an extra wide seat; look out skinny, here I come.

UPDATE BY REDBULL

I have one of these over at my cabin on the river (ED Skywalker you may or may not have seen it).

In the wee hours of the morning, after it's no longer safe to be on the water piloting a watercraft due to sobriety issues, we usually break this out and see who can drive it the furthest in a straight line.

Note: The headlight on our model is a flashlight fastened with bungee cords and it takes two people to start the bike - so you're basically riding down a dirt road in the dark. Whoever maintains the straightest flashlight beam is the winner. If the flashlight falls off you lose. If you wreck and the bike goes in the water you lose and get you’re a$$ kicked for ruining the party.

Anyway, I am seriously thinking of getting it fixed so it will pass inspection because $4.00/gallon gas looks likely.

Faith In America

2006-04-17T13:47:00.000-05:00

If you missed Sunday's edition of Meet the Press, click here to watch it. It's excellent.

It addresses many issues concerning the state of faith in our country today, particularly the hypocrisy that exists with many ideas put forward by religious extremists in our society, among other things.

My take was that religious extremists have a tendency to use very shortsighted and narrow minded views of religion, weather it be Christians, Muslims, Jews, etc, to further their cause, while leaving out the things that don’t fit their views.

In other words, religious extremists tend to focus on a very small part of religion and faith in order to further their cause, as opposed to focusing on religion and faith as a whole.

Potts: 'No End In Sight'

2006-04-15T08:33:00.000-05:00

Quotes made by Sen. Russ Potts from The Leesburg Today, Saturday, April 15, 2006 regarding the HOD proposed budget.

“There’s no end in sight,” he said. “The Senate is united and solid that we are not going to sign off on some Band-Aid proposal, and that’s what it is. You have to have long-term sustainable consistent funding. So what are we going to do? Go out there and sign on the House’s proposal that would provide funding out of the General Fund at the expense of higher ed, health care and public safety and worse yet then have funding in place for two years. So what are we going to do, build the road to nowhere?”

“This pitiful amount of money they are talking about won’t even pay for the transportation challenges of the 27th District I represent. Not one Senate district. It won’t pay for the Springfield Bypass which is in its sixth year.”

....Potts said today that the House's new proposal is just a tactic to get the budget adopted and that when September comes, House Republicans will "say 'what transportation problem?'"

"It’s unanimous. I don’t know anybody in the entire Senate who will give it the time or day," he said about the House's proposal.

Approval Ratings for Gov. Kaine

2006-04-14T23:40:00.000-05:00

Survey USA has there new poll numbers for all 50 Governors. A 600 individual sample shows Gov. Kaine with a 55% approval rating and 33% disapproval. The survey was conducted April 7th-the 9th. View the cross tabs here.

What does everyone think?

Who Thinks Taxes are #1?

2006-04-12T01:20:00.000-05:00

Apparently not only the distinguished State Senator who resides in Winchester, but also his hometown City Council. Tuesday night the Winchester City Council voted 12-1 to increase the Real Estate Tax 6 cents, nearly a 10% Tax Hike! The new rate will be 69 cents per $100 of assessed value.

You can read the story here (You must be registered with the Winchester Star to read the article online).

Councilor Jeffrey B. Buettner sounds a lot like Sen. Potts when he says "I don't like taxes; I hate paying them, but I see the necessity for them."

With Council elections coming up next November, will these tax raising "republicans" receive the backing of the Winchester GOP? I certainly hope not.

I am glad Stewart Masters had the chutzpah to be the lone dissentinging vote.

2006 General Assembly Summary

2006-04-11T20:14:00.000-05:00

I came across this handy little document produced by the Division of Legislative Services that highlights different bills that passed and failed in this year's GA Session.

It's a .pdf file so it may take some time to open. The document organizes legislation into various categories such as Adoption, Agriculture, Business, Education, etc.

It's easy to bash the GA so I am going to take some time giving them credit where credit is due.

Here are a few areas where I think the GA made significant progress in 2006:

A bill was passed regarding Small Business health insurance.

The bill "authorizes the establishment of cooperatives for the purpose of offering, providing, or facilitating the provision of coverage for health care services to participating small employers. Membership in health group cooperatives is limited to employers with not more than 50 eligible employees. A small employer health group cooperative is deemed to be a single entity for purposes negotiating the terms, including premium rates of coverage. Cooperatives shall elect to either be the policyholder of a group policy covering employer-members or a sponsoring entity that facilitates the provision of separate policies for each of its employer members."

This is great news for small business owners.

Cable competition

A bill was passed that "establishes a new procedure by which cable operators may obtain authorization to operate cable systems in localities, which may grant ordinance cable franchises as an alternative to negotiated cable franchises. Ordinance cable franchises may be requested by certificated providers of telecommunications services with previous consent to use a locality’s rights-of way, after requesting to negotiate a cable franchise agreement. Upon receipt of an application for an ordinance cable franchise, the locality shall adopt necessary ordinances within 120 days."

I am not sure if my cable bill will go down but at least it's a start.

No Child Left Behind

A bill was passed that "Directs the Board of Education to develop a plan to eliminate initiatives or conditions that are currently being funded by No Child Left Behind, unless such initiatives or conditions are an integral and necessary component the Standards of Quality, Standards of Accreditation, or Standards of Learning."

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for NCLB.

The Cost of College Textbooks

A bill was passed that will address the cost of college textbooks. "The governing boards of public institutions of higher education must implement policies for minimizing the cost of textbooks for students. The guidelines must require (i) that faculty members submit lists of their required textbooks to the university bookstore in a timely manner, (ii) that any on-campus university bookstore selling textbooks to students as part of a package with other study products also sell such textbooks separate of such study products, that faculty members affirmatively acknowledge the price of textbooks they require before the order is complete, (iv) that be encouraged to limit their use of edition textbooks, and (v) that sample of textbooks be made available for in the university library."

For those that have been out of college for a while let me fill you in. Almost ALL college textbooks come with a CD that contains lessons, mini-movies, and a lot of other cool stuff. This bill will allow students to purchase only the CD and not the CD and book.

Well, those are just a few. It's a great summary of the 2006 GA session and it's worth a read.

Win-Fred MPO

2006-04-10T20:23:00.000-05:00

Anyone with any interest in what's going to happen regarding transportation in our area over the next 25 years should take a look at the Win-Fred MPO 2030 Transportation Plan. There is an entire website devoted to it that can be found here.

The plan has been public sine October of 2005. Those looking for a quick read should take a look at Chapter 6 - it's a .pdf file so it may take some time to download. Scroll down to the bottom of the file and take a look at the map. All of the orange lines are new roads. Most are badly needed and long overdue.

Also, I was chatting with some folks who said they were considering making the proposed extension of Va 37 - the 37 bypass, a toll road. Has anyone else heard this?

My bad...

2006-04-06T18:38:00.000-05:00

Sorry guys, the interview was only about 10-12 minutes long, not as extensive as I thought. But the book is pretty good, and there have been allegations for years that the World Bank and the IMF were responsible for a lot of South American and Latin American countries going bankrupt, defaulting on loans, asking for forgiveness of debts.

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man...

2006-04-06T17:55:00.000-05:00

John Perkins is the bestselling author of the Non-Fiction Autobiographical, "Confessions of An Economic Hit Man." If you've read the book, or listened to it on CD like I did, you know it is an amazingly eye opening, at some times hard to beleive story. But, the historical information within the book alone is worth the read even if you don't totally beleive or like the author.

Anyway John Perkins will be on CNBC tonight at 7 o'clock, on "On the Money". It should be a great interview since they usually do full one hour interviews unlike most news channels that only give you severely edited tid bits of interviews.

I'm sorry I'm posting this so late but I just found out about it, I hope you all watch, and tell me what you think.

Or just read the book.

Potts vs. Hamilton

2006-04-04T19:04:00.000-05:00

I picked this up over at Bearing Drift - Bearing Drift -- Conservative Blog for Hampton Roads, Virginia

Del. Phil Hamiltion (R-Newport News) is going head-on with Sen. Russ Potts (R-Winchester) this Wednesday from 8:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. on Newsradio 790AM WNIS during "Macrini's Morning News Team."

Another Fish Kill?

2006-04-02T12:37:00.000-05:00

Anyone that likes to fish the waters of Virginia likely recalls the big fish kill that affected the Shenandoah River last spring.

Hopefully, we will not see a repeat of that this year. As a matter of fact, several friends that are avid fisherman told me that the fishing had been excellent so far this spring.

However, I came across this article that said several fish have been found with, “lesions and spots.…..in the North Fork near Woodstock -- and in the South River below Waynesboro.
” The article did not mention which species of fish were affected.

The Shenandoah River is a great natural resource. It also supplies drinking water to several cities in the Shenandoah Valley. So, keeping it clean is something that is important to everyone in The Valley.

If you’re a big outdoors person or interested in learning more about the river take a look at the website for The Friends of the Shenandoah River, http://www.fosr.org .

Have a Great Weekend!

2006-03-31T17:59:00.000-05:00

I-81 Regional Transportation Authority

2006-03-29T20:19:00.000-05:00

Sen. Emmett W. Hanger Jr., R-Mount Solon, is considering legislation that will study the creation of an I-81 Regional Transportation Authority. To find out more, check out this article by Bob Gibson of the Daily Progress.

Hanger believes the authority would be able to levy tolls but not raise taxes. It would oversee the entire road from Frederick County to Bristol. Apparently, the STAR Solutions plan is likely to be scrapped due to cost.

Hanger also believes that Regional Transportation Authorities are likely to play a big role in the future of transportation in the Commonwealth. He was quoted in the article as saying, “Tolls are an appropriate user fee that conservative Republicans can rally behind.”

In another article, Sen. Charles Hawkins was quoted as saying, "I think this is one of the most important things (transportation) we've got to deal with in the next 50 years, next hundred years."

He went on to say, "The people in the technology industry who are there (NOVA) for convenience - they don't have a history there, they don't have family ties - will start looking at options other than staying in Northern Virginia. Once you start that trend, Northern Virginia loses momentum, and that momentum has paid a lot of bills in Virginia, which helps our tax rate stabilize. ..."

Note to Sen. Hawkins - it's already happening. I work in a real estate related field in NOVA and I speak with 10-15 homeowners a week who are selling their homes. I would say at least 1 in 4 say they are moving out of the region because of traffic and congestion.

Rail To Dulles

2006-03-28T13:38:00.000-05:00

Finally, a deal has been reached that will extend Metrorail service to Dulles International Airport.

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) will finance the project using revenue generated from the Dulles Toll Road. The rail line is expected to be completed by 2015.

It appears as though it is mainly a state/federal project with localities having very little input into the project. Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors was quoted as saying, "There is no mechanism in this proposal for our having any input in this whatsoever."

On Monday the the Fairfax County board passed a resolution calling for both Loudoun and Fairfax to have a voice on construction, maintenance, operations, improvements and future toll increases.

For the complete story, please click here. Also, the The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority website has several documents pertaining to the agreement. The can be found here.

The official press release from the MWAA states that the Airports Authority Dulles Corridor Proposal will:

· Expedite completion of the Dulles Metrorail project in the Corridor to Dulles Airport and beyond to Route 772 in Loudoun County;

· Acquire from the Commonwealth its easements in the Corridor, including the Dulles Toll Road all of which is constructed on them;

· Take all operation responsibility, including toll rate-setting, for the Toll Road;

· Assume all outstanding debt on the Toll Road;

· Take responsibility for the Commonwealth's remaining share of financing for Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the Dulles Metrorail project;

· Finance and construct needed improvements to the Toll Road and Dulles Corridor; and

· Retain for transportation uses in the Dulles Corridor all revenue generated by the Toll Road.

What is a Republican?

2006-03-28T13:32:00.000-05:00

Old Zach over at Sic Semper Tyrannis has a good post up asking the question, What is a Republican?.

Check it out if you get a chance.

Speculation Abounds in the 27th

2006-03-23T13:48:00.000-05:00

With speculation at an all time high in the 27th Senate District, it is time to show some real numbers. For folks outside of the Valley, the 27th is made up of all of Winchester City, all of Frederick Co, all of Clark Co, Western Loudoun (basically west of Leesburg, only including one precinct in Leesburg), and a majority of Fauquier Co (Remington and Bealeton at the southern end, all of Warrenton is in the 27th).

Now by my understanding of party rules, voting strength for a convention would be based on Bush 04 vote totals and Kilgore 05 vote totals. These numbers would also work well when thinking about locality strength in a primary.

Winchester is about 8%
Frederick is about 34%
Clark is about 7%
Loudoun is about 25%
Fauquier is about 26%

Scenario One is that Sen. Potts runs for re-election in 2007.
Sen. Potts is in.
Jill Holtzman would run.
Mark Tate would run.
Phil Griffin would be out.
Chairman Schickle would be out.
Mayor Fitch would be out.

If this where to happen I do not foresee the "conservative" challengers staging a conservative convention to agree upon one true conservative to run against Sen. Potts in the Primary. This strategy was implemented in 2003 and Mark Tate of Loudoun edged out Phil Griffin of Winchester and Jill Holtzman of Warrenton for the conservative "nomination". Rumor has it that both Griffin and Holtzman feel if they won the mock convention they could have defeated Potts in the Primary. Neither of them would be willing to risk sitting 2007 out by agreeing to a mock convention.

If Sen. Potts seeks re-election in 2007 there is no need for a Chitchester backed moderate to run, so Chairman of the board of Frederick Co, Dick Shickle is out. Phil Griffin has made it known that he is interested in other political opportunities and would not seek to run again. This leaves Jill Holtzman and Mark Tate.

Jill leads Mark in the money game. After all her family owns an oil company and is very political in the Valley. In 2003 Mark won the hearts and minds of the grass root conservative’s district wide. There is no way to know if this is enough to hurt Jill's monetary advantage. In my opinion, Jill's money advantage would win out with conservatives by simply out spending Mark in direct mail.

This does not matter in the long run, because if Sen. Potts seeks re-election, without a conservative convention, Jill and Mark will simply be running for second place.

Further, if Warrenton Mayor and failed gubernatorial republican candidate George Fitch were to run he would not significantly change this scenario.

Scenario Two is that Sen. Potts does not seek re-election is 2007.
Jill Holtzman would run.
Mark Tate would run.
Phil Griffin may get back in.
Dick Shickle (backed by Chitchester and worse possibly Sen. Potts) may get in.
George Fitch would be more than likely to get in.

In this wide open scenario, it comes down to regional turnout. Conventional wisdom says Mark would carry Loudoun, Jill would carry Fauquier, Phil would carry Winchester, Chairman Shickle would carry Frederick, and Mayor Fitch would carry Warrenton. The vote would be much diluted. But conventional wisdom is wrong.

Based on talk thorough the district, Jill Holtzman thinks she is strong in Frederick with support of most of the BOS members including the Chairman. Her support has never been tested in Fauquier, and she is taking that for granted since she lives there. Jill has been seen at GOP meetings in Frederick, Fauquier, and Loudoun. Again in this scenario with Chairman Shickle in the race, her support in Frederick evaporates. With Mayor Fitch in the race, the voting block of Warrenton in Fauquier Co evaporates. Suddenly Jill is a paper tiger.

Even if Phil Griffin where to run, his support is only in Winchester City, with 8% of the vote that is not enough for a strong campaign. I feel Phil would defer to his friend Mark Tate to carry the conservative banner.

If Chairman Shickle runs, his support would come from Frederick, taking from Jill and from Winchester simply because of local media being centered in Winchester. His may be the strongest position to run from.

Mayor George Fitch takes Warrenton and that’s about it. He hurts Jill Hotlzman.

Mark Tate recently moved to Purcellville from Middleburg has 25% of the district as his base. He would not face the same challenges Jill would have with a possible campaign from Mayor Fitch or Chairman Shickle. Mark also has strong ties to the Clark Co GOP, and without Phil in the race, Winchester becomes split between Mark and Chairman Shickle.

Now it gets even more interesting. In 2003 Jill Holzman made a comment at the conservative convention that scared the pro-life wing of the party. If there is long term memory of this, Mark can use that to mobilize traditional church going conservatives. Folks in the district may remember the "bloody Sunday" literature drop the Sunday before the Primary where Mark effectively mobilized the church goers in Winchester and Frederick. Most of these people are not regular attendees at GOP committee meetings and are the type of people who would be less impressed by an endorsement like that of the BOS members or a campaign by the Chairman of the Frederick Co BOS. They have a long memory and will remember that in 2003 Mark was the true conservative who was pro life.

That alone further splits Frederick Co, the largest voting block. The BOS and moderate crowd would go with Chairman Shickle. The party and activists may go with Jill. And the regular attendees of the large evangelical churches the Valley is known for would go with Mark.

So in my opinion in a crowded field with no Sen. Potts, Mark Tate has a slight advantage. Jill Holtzman's huge money advantage would be spent on direct mail and radio district wide to cover her losses of Mayor Fitch and Chairman Shickle.

Scenario Three is that Sen. Potts where to resign his seat to take an administration job or a private sector job.
Sen. Potts is out.
Jill Holtzman is in.
Mark Tate is in.
Phil Griffin would be out.
Mayor Fitch would be out.
Chairman Shickle may be in (backed by Potts or Chitchester).

There is much speculation this is about to happen, so why not game it out? In a short nomination process only the candidates with an established network would run. This means Phil Griffin and Mayor Fitch would be out. Jill Holtzman and Mark Tate would certainly run. The wrinkle in this scenario is "does Sen. Potts anoint a successor"? Would that be Chairman Shickle or a democrat? I do not buy the talk that Jill Holtzman is operating within an agreement with Sen. Potts. Although if that were found to be accurate, Jill would lose all conservative support.

In a short nomination process, name ID is the ball game. Mark Tate has it, Jill Holtzman is trying to buy that. The shorter the nomination process the better for Mark. The longer it is drawn out the more direct mail Jill can send out and raise her name ID. Jill has been sending out District Newsletters on a regular basis and a recent phone poll was conducted by the Holtzman campaign.

A moderate from the Winchester/Frederick area could turn the nomination process from a question of timing to a question of turnout. Without a moderate, a Jill vs. Mark nomination process would be a text book example of money verse grassroots. At that point the nomination would revolve around Jill's money and how it is spent and if Mark can mount a serious fundraising campaign and challenge Jill with direct mail and radio.

My conclusions.
Scenario One-Sen. Potts wins re-election.
Scenario Two-Slight edge to Mark Tate. Jill a strong contender.
Scenario Three-Slight edge to Jill Holtzman. Mark a strong contender.

OPINION - From The Daily News Record

2006-03-20T16:35:00.000-05:00

This letter appeared on The Daily-News Record's website on March 20, 2006. I figured I would post it for those that might be interested.

There’s No State Budget

Before Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Sen. Mark Obenshain, and Del. Matt Lohr get too caught up in a self-congratulatory victory lap for their legislative achievements ("McDonnell Touts Sexual Predator Bill," March 15), perhaps the voters need to remind them that we still don’t have a budget in place.

Our state has critical transportation needs, and Mr. Obenshain’s Republican controlled Senate and Mr. Lohr’s Republican controlled House of Representatives need to get back to Richmond and work out a sensible compromise that will provide a long-term solution to these problems. So please, let's hold the champagne until the real work gets done.

Don Roderick
Chair, Rockingham CountyDemocratic Committee

This letter appeared on http://www.dailynews-record.com/opinion_details.php?LID=1100

George Allen Update

2006-03-19T14:41:00.000-05:00

Sen. George Allen has a very busy schedule this coming week. To read more please read this article from Tyler Whitley of the Richmond Times Dispatch.

This past weekend Allen was in Iowa speaking about how the Federal Government doesn't have a revenue problem but a spending problem. No kidding? The last I heard the war in Iraq was costing us $150 million a day.

FYI...Allen voted Thursday to raise the federal debt ceiling to $9 trillion. He really had no choice. If the ceiling hadn't been raised the government would have gone into default.

In order to control spending Allen believes that Congress needs to have constitutional amendments requiring a balanced budget and giving the president a line-item veto. I agree with the first, not so sure about the line-item veto. Wasn't the line-item veto ruled unconstitutional?

Allen spoke about domestic security and controlling illegal immigrants while in Iowa. Apparently he favors the idea of a security fence to keep illegal immigrants out of the country and he does not support amnesty for illegal immigrants who have worked here for several years.

To my surprise Allen does not favor a new South Dakota law that would ban all abortions. Like most folks, Allen believes abortions should be legal only if the life of the mother is at stake or if the mother was a victim of rape or incest.

Give 'Em Hell Harry Pt. 2

2006-03-08T15:51:00.000-05:00

It appears as though Sen. Russ Potts should have saved the floor speech he made regarding the HOD dumping of former Del. Jim Dillard to the W&M Board of Visitors for later.

In case you don't remember, please check out this post from 2/14.

So what now? There is only one thing left to fight over - transportation.

They should put this fight on pay-per-view because it will be worth watching. If I were betting on the fight my money would be on the Senate and Governor. A tax increase will be passed and new sustainable revenue sources will be provided for transportation.

The Shenandoah Valley Network

2006-03-06T12:17:00.000-05:00

A citizen group named The Shenandoah Valley Network has been formed to “educate” the public about the current Star Solution’s plan to widen I-81. To learn more, please read this article in today’s Richmond Times Dispatch.

I didn’t see a website for the group otherwise I would have posted it.

Some things that jumped out at me while reading the article:

-Traffic on the highway tripled in the last 20 years to about 60,000 vehicles per day.

-Tractor-trailers make up half the volume at times in some places.

-Growth rates are projected to bring traffic to a standstill at peak times by 2025.

Anyone who travels I-81 knows that traffic is bad. What’s more, it’s dangerous.

Fixing choke points along the highway is a good start. However, I tend to agree with Star Solutions when they say that in the long run the entire road will need to be widened.

This Is A Lot Of Beer

2006-03-06T11:54:00.000-05:00

The Coors brewery located in the Shenandoah Valley is in the process of moving forty 20x70 foot stainless steel fermenting tanks from King George to Elkton. The tanks weigh 78,000 pounds each.

For complete coverage please click here and here.

Awesome.

RPV Chair on Fox News

2006-03-06T11:16:00.000-05:00

Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Kate Obenshain Griffin was on Fox News this morning at 11:25. Opposite her was Judith Hope the former Chairman of the New York Democratic Party.

The topic of conversation for the segment was the re-election of Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. Kathleen "K.T." McFarland a self described Reagan Republican is the newest challenger to Hilary in 2006.

You can read the NYT story about K.T. here.

Kate got her shots in and it sounded like she knew all the RNC talking points. "This is an extremely liberal candidate if you ask me" in reference to Sen. Clinton.

But why Kate Griffin? Did Fox News just need a female state party chair to offset Mrs. Hope? Or did Presidential politics come into play? I won't speculate here, that is what the comment section is for.

Homeschooling

2006-03-02T16:53:00.000-05:00

It’s big and getting bigger every day. To learn more, click here.

Among the things the article points out:

·Most home-schooled children remain overwhelmingly white and middle class.

·Requirements to home-school your children vary from state to state. Some states require parents that home-school their children to submit lesson plans periodically and some states leave you alone entirely.

·The number of children being home-schooled is growing 7-15 percent per year.

Reasons many parents choose to home school their kids:

·Concern about drugs, safety or negative peer pressure in public schools.

·Parents wanting to provide religious or moral instruction to their children.

·Overall dissatisfaction with academic standards in their local schools.

I am not sure how Virginia stacks up when it comes to allowing parents to home-school their kids. Does anyone know? Is it easy? Is it hard?

Bring On The Competition

2006-02-27T21:14:00.000-05:00

It looks as though Verizon Communications wants to enter the cable TV business. Click here to read more.

Good. After all, we live in a global, free market economy, right?

I know of quite a few people who complain every 30 days when they open their current cable TV bill. For the most part they are satisfied with the service they get and the amount of channels they receive. They simply feel they pay too much, particularly when they only watch a handful of channels and there are few other choices.

I for one could live without almost 80% of what I get under my current plan. I would much rather only pay for specific channels as opposed to being forced to buy so many. But, that’s a topic for another time.

Legislators are on the right track by requiring companies who want to provide cable TV service to serve at least 65% of a locality. By doing so they prevent the companies from cherry picking the most affluent neighborhoods.

In case you didn’t know, your local City Council or Board of Supervisors made your current cable TV selection. In order to get local contract cable TV providers must provide service to a certain percentage of a locality as well as provide a certain number of public access channels.

This should be interesting. Stay tuned.

Paint It Black

2006-02-22T15:15:00.000-05:00

We all know the lyrics, “I see a red door and I want it painted black.”

Sorry, Sir Mick, nice try, but you can pack away your brush and paint bucket because no painting will be going on in Winchester’s Corridor Enhancement District without a blessing from the City Planning Commission.

Read all about it, here.

Sadly, another layer of bureaucracy is about to be implemented on property owners who live or own property located in the Corridor Enhancement District. For those that don’t know, the “district” is basically all of the major entryways leading into the city towards the downtown area.

The proposed ordinance will permit, “no more than three colors, excluding roof colors…for buildings in the Corridor Enhancement District.”

Damn, I guess the rendering of Elvis I was thinking about doing on the side of my house is a no go.

It appears as though the days when you, as a property owner, could go to the local hardware store and choose the colors YOU like the best are slowly fading away. I now have to submit a color scheme plan to the City Planning Commission for approval if I want to paint my house or rental property if it is located in the district.

The first question I asked myself was, what exactly makes the City Planning Commission experts on color schemes? Have they had some special class in what a good paint scheme is? Second, what if I get turned down? Will they come back to me and say, “here is what we like” or “this is what we prefer.” Third, and most importantly, what about my property rights?

City beautification is all fine and well. However, this is a little over the top in my book.

We Need More Inland Ports

2006-02-21T20:25:00.000-05:00

The The Northern Virginia Daily's Political Depot has another good piece on the competing transportation plans under consideration. To read it, click here.

One aspect of the House plan I found interesting was the $45 million to upgrade rail lines from Front Royal to Manassas. The money will make it easier to ship goods to and from the Virginia Inland Port which is located in Warren County, close to I-81 and I-66.

The inland port is a distribution point for goods that are received via rail from Norfolk. Ships unload cargo onto trains and then the goods are sent via rail to the inland port. To see a map click here.

Given the truck traffic on I-81 perhaps a few more ports situated throughout the Commonwealth wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Perhaps another port in Roanoke, Charlottesville, or Bristol would go a long way to alleviating a lot of the truck congestion on I-81 and other roads in the Commonwealth.

Commonwealth Watch: The Commonwealth vs Counties: Drunk With Power

2006-02-20T15:35:00.000-05:00

Commonwealth Watch: The Commonwealth vs Counties: Drunk With Power

Interesting discussion going on about HB 1435 sponsored by Del. David Albo

The Non-State Agency Dilemma

2006-02-20T09:58:00.000-05:00

I scoured several news articles this morning and just about all of them were focused on the looming budget battle about to take place over transportation funding.

The one I found most interesting was from The Free Lance Star. Click here to read it. The article highlights the spending on non-state agencies, or, “arts and culture groups.” The Senate budget requests $95 million for such groups while the House budget requests $40 million.

Sen. John Chichester makes an excellent point when he said that both the Senate and House must, “maintain our laserlike focus on our commitment first to core services. The level of expenditure embodied in these requests continues to be more than can be appropriately accommodated."

Among the groups receiving state dollars:

$5,500 to the Colonial Beach Historical Society; $200,000 to the Fredericksburg Area Museum and Cultural Center; $50,000 to George Washington's Fredericksburg Foundation; $40,000 to the Museum of Culpeper History; $10,000 to the Northern Neck Farm Museum; $100,000 to the Northern Neck of Virginia Historical Society; $100,000 to the Reedville Fisherman's Museum; $100,000 to the Westmoreland County Museum; and $25,000 to the Westmoreland Poor School Society.

Museums and cultural centers are a great way to preserve a localities history and personality but at the same time, like any other enterprise, they should be expected to make it on revenues and donations they generate themselves, not state tax dollars.

I am sure many of them do just that. However, I am sure many wouldn’t even exist were it not for state money. At what point do we as taxpayers say enough is enough? If there are not enough people interested in visiting the XYZ museum or donating money to it why should the state come in and save the day with taxpayer money?

UPDATE

I just picked this up from the NV Daily's Political Depot.

House:
• Belle Grove Plantation, $50,000
• Clarke County Historical Association, $37,500
• New Market Library, $50,000
• Our Health, $250,000
• Shenandoah Valley Battlefields Foundation, $100,000
• Wayside Theatre, $25,000
• Warren Coalition Free Wheeling Handicapped Playground, $50,000
• Winchester-Frederick County Historical Society, $40,000
• Woodstock Museum of Shenandoah County, $5,765

Senate:
• Winchester Frederick County Historical Society, $20,000
• Belle Grove Plantation, $50,000
• Museum of the Shenandoah Valley, $200,000
• Shenandoah Valley Discovery Museum, $500,000

Items included in former Gov. Mark R. Warner’s initial proposal:
• Museum of the Shenandoah Valley, $200,000
• Shenandoah Valley Discovery Museum: $500,000

I've never been to the Shenandoah Valley Discovery Museum. I bet it's nice.

The Commonwealth Iconoclast: Is Blacksburg becoming "Bongburg"?

2006-02-17T10:50:00.000-05:00

It's Friday and I weant to lighten things up a bit.

Here's an interesting post over at The Commonwealth Iconoclast.

The Commonwealth Iconoclast: Is Blacksburg becoming "Bongburg"?

Kill Bill

2006-02-15T16:03:00.000-05:00

The Northern Virginia Daily's Political Depot (Wednesday, February 15, 2006) has a good update on what is happening in regards to the various transportation plans being considered.

A major portion of Gov. Kaine’s plan would have allowed local governments to kill a development project if the project would over-stress the local roads.

Unfortunately, that portion of the plan died in a House subcommittee.

The article gors on to say, “A package of VDOT reforms moving through the House would privatize interstate maintenance and start the process of putting road decisions and financing back into the hands of local governments.”

Wait, didn't they just kill that?

I would like to see the “process” started sooner rather than later. Local governments need more authority when it comes to development.

Wow!

2006-02-14T22:36:00.000-05:00

I came across this handy-dandy website which I would like to share with fellow bloggers.

Here it is. I especially like the graph because it puts things in perspective.

As of this posting our national debt is currently $8,205,376,724,587.34. Or, $8.2 trillion.

This is the government's official tally. If you want to see how much interest we paid back to the Chinese, Japanese, OPEC Countries, etc., click here.

Wow!

Give 'Em Hell Harry

2006-02-14T15:56:00.000-05:00

27th District Sen. H. (Harry) Russell Potts, Jr. used a recent floor speech to lambaste the House of Delegates for it’s recent dumping of former Del. Jim Dillard to the W&M Board of Visitors. Click here.

I think Potts should have saved the speech for later. It appears as though the House is set to block the conformation of former Virginia AFL-CIO President Daniel G. LeBlanc as the Secretary of the Commonwealth.

House Republican Leader Morgan Griffith was quoted in the Hampton Roads Daily Press as saying, “The concern is over the 4,000 or so appointments to boards and commissions the governor will have over the next four years, and he (LeBlanc) would be looking at them and could put pro-union activists into positions that would set policy.”

Sen. Thomas K. Norment Jr., R-James City, tried to patch thing up in a speech later in the day when he asked that the rhetoric be toned down.

It’s a shame but things could go down hill from here. Sadly, it looks like partisanship might prevail in this year’s session and ultimately put an end to much needed transportation legislation.

I do believe Sen. Potts was correct in saying that the current political climate has become more vindictive and meaner. We often lose our best potential candidates from both parties because they don’t want to get involved in the dogfight that has come to define present day politics. Go figure.

Sunday Morning Quarterbacking the School Board Budgets

2006-02-12T23:14:00.000-05:00

I would like to encourage everyone up and down the Valley to stroll in to their local School Board Office and take a big wiff, cause you are gonna smell the greatest scent in the world: Money.

All this week throughout the Valley cities and counties alike will be releasing their projected 06'-07' budgets, and just look at all that extra dough. There's no mistaking, last year was educations big year. Additional state and federal funding, one-time injections, and a booming economy boasting record state and local sales tax revenues, have all combined to form record surpluses in the local SB budgets. You would think.

Yet, early indications appear all this Commonwealth's good fortune may not go to good use. Localities aren't looking to the future, but instead they're looking to make up for the past. I urge our readers in the Valley to pay close attention to these budgets once they become public. You may find upwards of 80 new hires for a single school district, teacher salary increases very close to double-digits, along with numerous infrastructure improvements, among many, many other new and increasing expenditures.

Although most of these will be duly justified by your local School Board members, remember the real buck stops with your local BOS or City Councils. There is a big difference between what the School Boards may deem necessary and what your local governing authority finds to be excess.

Here's a link on Frederick Counties 06-07' budget. Notice the increase of $15.1M. A couple lines down you'll see a projected increase of 564 students. That's $26,773 per new student. (FYI the State average is around $8,000/student). No wonder folks are moving to the area in droves.

Virginia, politically nor financially, can afford to go through the extreme measures and arm-twisting that it did a year ago, nor can public education depend upon the Commonwealth's booming economy to get it out of crisis again a year or two down the road. I (for what it's worth) urge local School Boards to show some bit of restrain this upcoming fiscal year, realizing that its greatest challenges both from a financial and educational point of view still lie ahead.

How to save Downtown, Shenandoah Valley: Start a tab.

2006-02-11T15:39:00.000-05:00

Main St.

You can be almost anywhere in and around the Shenandoah Valley and find one.Woodstock, Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Berryville, and a good right many more places in between. Here in Winchester, the image is the same, only the street name is different, it's Loudoun Street. That's downtown, and its future is very uncertain.

We've all witnessed it, and seen it happen right in front of our face. What was once the epicenter of a two-stoplight town, has now become the town burden. With the emergence of strip-malls, Wal-Marts, and subdivisions, the inner-city has now moved out. I'm not going to dive into this whole issue, but simply take a gander at it from my hometowns perspective.

So what is the enemy? Money? Growth? Identity? History?

Money:
Over the last 15-20 years Winchester and other small towns and cities in the Valley have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep retail businesses on Main Streets. Yet what have they got to show for it? Another law office? Another bank? A book store? Hair salon? Another parking garage? Another damn parking garage! Which of the five items I've mentioned attracts floods of people to downtown? None, unless there's a Farmer's Market, a concert series, or a weave sale. Yet somehow council passes another measure to build another parking garage. Amazing.

Growth:
Some Cities, Towns and/or Counties are taking measures to address these and other recent afflictions suddenly brought on by thine enemy listed above. Unification, has even been proposed here in Winchester and Frederick County for this and scores of other reasons, mostly financial. Smaller cities to the east, like Leesburg and Manassas are now or have already struggled with many of the similar challenges that those of us in the Valley will inevitably still face. We should look to them as examples, primarily of 'what not to do'.

Identity and History:
We need to pick an identity and stick with it. Then zone it accordingly. We can't simply get a face transplant everytime an idea for rejuvenation fizzles. You can mark the end of every failed solution given thus far with the groundbreaking for a new parking garage. Either we need to decide what the future of our 'downtown' will be, or the folks moving in five-years from now will. They'll have no sense of our history, but they'll have population numbers and they'll have money.

Recently, a town Councilman in Warrenton was quoted saying:

"I believe we are quickly approaching a tipping point regarding the (types of uses) on Main Street. Once it is lost, we will never be able to regain it."

The most important word in that quote is 'we', said twice.

So what do we do now? We invest. Where's the money? It's where it has always been, even through a recession for Lords sake. It's in booze. Booze, booze, and more booze. More bars (this link is a bad example, but you'll thank me) and restaurants, and the retail will follow . I say that not because I am an alcoholic but because the potential to become one lies in us all. Its smart: commercially and in a public safety sense. "Re-Tap Downtown" I say. Booze bring spirits, and spirits breathe life. Where's there's life, there are people. And people (especially drunk ones) spend money. Just think, even once everyone has hailed that cab home, those parking garages will still be full.

I bet there are councilors and supervisors out there reading this post now, amazed. Amazed that the answer to downtown revitalization has been right there in the back of their bottom right desk drawer the whole time.

Show your support for this effort by stating: 'Bartendar- I'd like to start a tab!'

Eyebrows and War Paint....

2006-02-10T20:40:00.000-05:00

I know this is a week late and more than a few dollars short, but does anyone else think that Tim Kaine's eyebrow fiasco after the state of the union last week will go down in history right beside the caulk and spray paint that Katherine Harris used to hold her face together during the 2000 Florida recount?

Thanks, Del. Dillard

2006-02-10T18:22:00.000-05:00

We all know what happened. If you don't, read it here.

I think Del. Vince Callahan said it best when he stated, "He (Del. Dillard) was one of the architects of the rejuvenation of the Republican Party in the latter part of the 20th century and eminently qualified to be on the Board of Visitors at the College of William and Mary."

The sad thing is, the House was really not voting on his qualifications. They used him as an example. It's a shame the House forgot all of the good and positive things Del. Dillard did throughout his career. But why would they? Focusing on the negative, unpleasant aspects of a person's persona and past seems to have permeated the majority party to the point of making it dysfunctional.

Del. Joe May of Loudoun County, who voted for Dillard's appointment, said his vote was "a matter of conscience." He said he did not agree with Dillard's actions in last fall's campaigns, but "that doesn't negate 30 years of good service." Click Here.

I am not sure who the other members of William & Mary's Board of Visitors are, but they gave Dillard a standing ovation upon hearing the news of his punishment. I would assume they are most likely well connected, politically minded people. That said, this can't look good for the Republican Party.

If Republicans spent as much time punishing Democrats as they do themselves our majority would be safe. However, if the cannibalism continues, I am not sure what the future holds.

Soup, Brownies, and Camp Fires

2006-02-10T17:26:00.000-05:00

www.policysoup.blogspot.com has the House's power point program for the new transportation bill. Clearly they are going for a pay as you go short term borrowing program to fund most of the road construction. They are going to concentrate on the choke points of 81, 66, and 64, with most of the money going to the Northern VA and Hampton Roads area.

News seems to keep getting worse for the Bush administration. Today you had 'Browny' (the former FEMA commissioner, not the cookie pusher) putting more of the Katrina blame on the administration. And, Dick Cheney might be headed for another heart attack. Scooter Libby is apparently saying that Cheney told him to leak classified info, in a coordinated effort to attack Brian Wilson and the Beach Boys, I mean Joe Wilson and his wife. Moreover, another newly retired CIA official is saying Cheney cherry picked intel and intentionally missinterpreted the data supporting their case for war, and manufactoring the Iraq-Al Queda love fest. Apparently, Saddam and Osama never got along, they just couldn't agree on who had the bigger bomb. Oh well, I'm sure they'll have plenty of time to make up as they chase each other through the camp fire after life they're sure to share.

If Bush doesn't get a hold of this stuff quickly, these are the kind of issues that could slow the GOP down in '06. However, all these issues have already occurred and there really isn't much anyone can do about it now that they've happened. In addition, it is really early in the campaign season to break these scandals out, they all have plenty of time to die down before the dawg days of summer and the school days of Sept. when the campaigns really take off.

Analysis on Allen 06'

2006-02-09T20:57:00.000-05:00

This article is the best evenly presented analysis I've yet read on George Allen's 2006 Senate race. Decent discussion on both democratic candidates Webb and Miller.

'Tangle Up' is exactly what Webb's campaign could do.

As the article mentions, Allen is still 'Republican favored' . I'd rather that seat be 'Safe Republican'.

It Looks Like We're Heading For Overtime

2006-02-09T09:04:00.000-05:00

It's almost assured Gov. Kaine will call a special session to address transportation woes in the Commonwealth.

Kaine and the Senate appear to be close to agreement on a sustainable funding package for transportation. However, it appears that the House is not going to raise taxes and is willing to do whatever it takes to hold the line.

To make a long story short, the House wants to use "surplus" money from last year's tax increase to fund a series of transportation projects. The Senate on the other hand wants to create a sustainable source of revenue to fund projects now and in the future.

On Monday, the House Finance Committee killed a bill that would have raised taxes on sales of motor vehicles from 3 percent to 5 percent. In addition, they killed a bill to raise the tax on insurance premiums from 2.25 percent to 4.5 percent. These taxes would have raised $2 Billion over four years.

I don't like taxes, but if we need a sustainable source of money for roads, taxing those who buy cars seems to be a practical way of doing it. Roads are built for cars. It would make sence that cars help pay for the roads at some point in the equation.

I guess the big question will be, which House members, if any, will buckle under the pressure to do something about transportation?

Hoes, Heffers, and Bull Shit

2006-02-08T17:46:00.000-05:00

All your farming ideas and information can now be found in one place.

(drum roll)

Farmers have entered the blogosphere! A new blog 'Farm Gate' found at www.farmgate.uiuc.edu has now entered the fray. A product of the Univeristy of Illinois, Farm Gate looks to link farmers together using the internet, providing a discussion forum not prevoiusly available.

David Coleman, grain marketing manager with the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation said,

"They [farmers] use the Internet to find market prices, search for the best prices on inputs and equipment, to find information relating to almost any aspect of their farm and to communicate with each other. Most farmers readily adopt new technologies to try and reduce cost and increase production."

The whole article can be found here.

This is great news for some of America's, and certainly Virginia's, hardest working families. Kudos to those at U of I Extension for coming up with this great tool. I'll be interested to view some of their discussions. (Not really)

Winchester-Frederick County Unification Website:

2006-02-08T14:19:00.000-05:00

Soon to be a sign of the times:

The Winchester-Frederick County Unification/Consolidation/Amalgamation/Combination/Confederation venture has launched its own website found here.

This effort should become a great example for future endeavors down through the Valley over time. I highly recommend folks in Harrisonburg, Waynesboro, Clifton Forge, Covington, Staunton, and Lexington pay some attention to whats going on up here, as it could very well happen to you.

Wolf Urges Focus on Science and Math (and Transportation)

2006-02-07T18:20:00.000-05:00

In an article over the weekend in the Leesburg Today, Republican Congressman Frank Wolfe (R-10-VA) offered up some insight into his agenda and focus for 2006. Aside from lingering national issues like finding solutions to the political and military challenges in Iraq, the Congressman touched first on issues facing his constituents here in the 10th District.

To no surprise, given the outcome of the state-office elections in Loudoun County, transportation was at the top of his list. In the article:

Recognizing that Rt.7 remains unbearably congested, Wolf said that he and some of his staff members met with key executives from the Virginia Department of Transportation in December to discuss why the traffic flow enhancement efforts, such as traffic-light synchronization, have not succeeded.

"They are also looking at how you would make it work on [Rts.] 50 and 28. We have asked them to expand it and expect it back sometime in March or April, " Wolf said.

"We have the money for [Rts.] 28 and 50; but, if we dont know what's wrong, we'll just be wasting the money. So, I said let's just hold on to the money until we get the report," Wolf said.

First- I'd like to say how nice it is to hear an elected Republican official, at the federal level no less, mention the phrase 'we'll just be wasting the money', especially when it follows the phrase 'we have the money'. Thank you Congressman.

Secondly, let me add that widening said roads, is NOT the answer. There is a perfect little example on the west-coast called Los-Angelos that has proved over and over again that simply widening a highway does not, long-term, fix transportation problems. Anyway Congressman, how do you plan on getting a four lane road through Aldie? Middleburg? or Upperville?

Thirdly, when you are talking about large-scale vehicle transportation and movement, one term that need not be used in discussion are the words 'light synchronization'. A traffic light does nothing but stop traffic dead still every 2-3 minutes. When you're talking mass exodus, traffic lights deserve absolutely no mention. Why else are interstates and freeways not only so darn popular but also work so well?

Fourth. What is 'traffic-flow enhancement'? It sounds a management skill required of all madams at busy brothels.

Take the money set aside for these mentioned projects and invest it in high-speed rail and other mass-transit iniatives. Either that or spend it on a nice week long trip to LA. Simply ask the LA City and Orange County planning departments this lone question: "If you could do it all over again, what would you do differently?" (Be sure they understand this is not a question about their life- but with specific regard to traffic and transportation) I am sure you'll find no mention of traffic lights, nor mention of road widening in their answers.

Housing Prices - Higher Still?

2006-02-06T21:10:00.000-05:00

CnnMoney.com has a very informative and interactive spreadsheet regarding the national housing market. Click here to check it out. Simply click on the headers at the top of the spreadsheet and sort the data any way you like.

Home values in every market surveyed in Virginia are expected to increase again this year.

The big winners? Harrisonburg and Winchester, both cities located in the Shenandoah Valley are predicted to see home values increase 8.2% in 2006.

If you sort the list from the biggest (expected) gainers to the smallest (expected) they are tied for 22nd out of 379 markets nationally.

Methamphetamine In The Valley

2006-02-06T18:39:00.000-05:00

Delegate C. Todd Gilbert, (R) - House District 15 who represents the Counties of Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham (part), and Shenandoah has introduced HB 785.

The bill will make any conviction involving any substance that contains any quantity of methamphetamine, including its salts, isomers, and salts of isomers, punishable by the same sentencing guidelines applicable to a cocaine conviction.

This is a good bill.

Meth has become a rather big problem in the valley. Click here to read more. It's highly addictive and causes those that become addicted to do things like sell their homes, cars, clothes, etc., in order to finance their addiction.

One thing that jumps out at you in the DEA report (linked above) is that fact that, "The Shenandoah Valley region contains the highest percentage of methamphetamine abusers in the state, and was the first area of the state to receive a huge influx of Mexican immigrants, whose presence encouraged an expansion of existing Mexican drug-trafficking networks."

To learn more about Meth, please read this report from the U.S. Dept. of Justice.

On a side note, I am not so sure that I agree with HB 1312, also introduced by Del. Gilbert, which eliminates the requirement that law-enforcement officers permit motorists to observe the reading on a radar device.

I know when I get pulled over, I always like to see mine!

Paging Bev Sherwood?

2006-02-06T13:51:00.001-05:00

I find it odd that in today's Winchester Star an article giving the agenda of Winchester-Frederick County Chamber of Commerce fails to mention the group of 35 members ever meeting with either Delegate Sherwood or State Senator Potts?

In this article members WILL meet with a former judge of the VCC, Hugh Keogh the Virginia Chamber of Commerce President, and two directors from the VEC, along with Governor Kaine. Yet no mention of either of the Chambers local representatives.

I can somewhat understand Russ's failure to fit this into his schedule, as his likely odds of running for reelection in 2007 are slim-to-none. Mrs. Sherwood on the other hand, you think would make an effort to meet with influential and important members from the Winc-Fred delegation. Which begs another question:

Is/Has Beverly Sherwood even been in Richmond this session? Not a single press release, nor news clip, letter to the editor/open forum, or even a mention of her presence in a newspaper (Winc. Star or NoVa Daily) or on Cable Channel 6, that runs in the Northern Shenandoah Valley. Neither has offered any news on her whereabouts yet this session.

Maybe I'll stop by her local office and see if she's there. Does anyone know where "PO Box" St/Rd/Dr/Ln. is in Winchester?

I-81 - The Saga Continues

2006-02-05T17:26:00.000-05:00

Several valley legislators are at odds with the recent proposal submitted by Star Solutions to widen Interstate 81.

Personally, I think Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah County, made a good point when he said valley residents, "certainly do not want an eight to 12-lane monstrosity of a road running up and down the valley."

Apparently, House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, disagrees saying, "If you continue to throw out the good in search of the perfect, you'll never get I-81 improved."

As a resident of the valley, I think Rockbridge County Del. Ben Cline has the most practical solution when he suggests fixing "choke points" on the highway. In addition, he suggests $1.9 million in new spending over the next two years to hire 10 additional state troopers to patrol along I-81. I hope he gets it.

I also hope the new troopers start pulling over reckless truck drivers who speed, run people off the road, and make I-81 a very dangerous road to travel.

Legislative Update

2006-02-05T13:53:00.000-05:00

I'd like to kick thing off with a legislative update (at least for the northern valley) for all of our readers. Below are links to legislation that our local legislators have either Patroned, Chief Co-Patroned, or Co-Patroned

Delegate Beverly J. Sherwood (R) - House District 29 (Patron)

Delegate Beverly J. Sherwood (R) - House District 29 (Co-Patron)

Delegate Clifford L. Athey, Jr. (R) - House District 18 (Chief Patron)

Delegate Clifford L. Athey, Jr. (R) - House District 18 (Chief Co-Patron)

Delegate Clifford L. Athey, Jr. (R) - House District 18 (Co-Patron)

Senator H. Russell Potts, Jr. (R) - Senate District 27 (Chief Patron)

Senator H. Russell Potts, Jr. (R) - Senate District 27 (Co-Patron)

One Bill that could have huge implications was presented by Senator Potts. SB 686 establishes the Transportation Future Fund. Here is the full text of the Bill:

"Establishes the Transportation Future Fund (the Fund) to support the design and construction of surface transportation infrastructure of long-term statewide significance. Fund investments include: design and construction of the Third Crossing of Hampton Roads; construction of the Southeastern Parkway and improvements to U.S. Route 460 and Interstate Route 64 in Hampton Roads; expansion of Metrorail service to Tyson's Corner; completion of environmental impact studies associated with the Eastern and Western Bypasses in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.; completion of location studies and reservation of rights-of-way in connection with a Potomac River bridge between the American Legion Bridge (Interstate Route 495) and the U.S. Route 15 bridge; establishment of high-occupancy toll lanes on Interstate Routes 95, 395, and 495 in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., in the Fredericksburg-Washington corridor; expansion of Interstate Route 66 both within and outside the Capital Beltway; and completion of environmental impact studies associated with improvements to rail service, additional truck lanes, and improvements to choke points and dangerous locations in the Interstate Route 81 corridor. The Fund is to be financed through a 1cent increase in the sales and use tax and through establishment of toll roads."

Like Senator Potts always said, "There is no free lunch."

Greetings

2005-11-07T11:30:00.000-05:00

Welcome to Morgan's Riflemen, a blog dedicated to political happenings in the Shenandoah Valley.

The purpose of this blog is to enhance the debate about various issues that affect everyone in the Valley. Things such as growth, jobs, local & state government, and schools will be frequent topics of discussion.

As is always the case we want to keep the debate civil and orderly.

Other than that feel free to post your comments.

A Brief History of Daniel Morgan

In the spring of 1735 a tall, strong youth about 17 years old strode into Charles Town, Virginia with little but the clothes on his back and a determination to make something of himself. Almost nothing is known of Daniel Morgan's life before this time: he was born of Welsh immigrant parents in 1735 (or 1736) in Hunterdon County, New Jersey (or somewhere in Pennsylvania). His father was probably a landless farm laborer and Morgan later intimated that the two of them didn't get along. His mother's name and the existence of any siblings are unknown--Daniel himself never spoke of them. His shady background and subsequent rise strike an almost mythical note: he was the true American individual who came from nowhere and established himself as an authentic hero.

The young man was notably strong and a hard, tireless worker. He began by hiring himself out as a farm worker but in less than a year earned enough trust from his employer to be placed in charge of the man's sawmill. Though Daniel would find himself in debt more than once during his life, he saved enough money to buy his own wagon and team and set up as an independent wagoner by the age of 19. He played as hard as he worked--a legendary brawler and drinker in a country full of brawlers and drinkers. There was plenty of work to be had hauling farm produce from the backwoods and over the mountains.

War between the British and French on the frontier meant even more work for Morgan, who hired himself out hauling supplies for the British army. He was in the wagon train when General Braddock's army was attacked and almost wiped out by a French and Indian coalition; instead of supplies, Morgan found himself hauling wounded soldiers. At some point during that same year, 1754, he got into an altercation with a British officer which ended with a solid fist landed on the redcoat's soft body. This act of defiance led to swift military justice and a sentence of 500 lashes on the bare back. Such punishment was not unusual for the British army at the time, nor was it uncommon for a man to die under the lash. Morgan was too tough to die, but the experience left his back a mass of bone and hamburger. Once the scars healed over, however, he possessed a valuable visual aid that would prove useful to him more than once.

He was not too soured on the British army to apply for a commission as colonel of militia (which never amounted to anything), and he also scouted and ran messages for them. On one occasion he was ambushed and chased by Indians for several miles, after taking a bullet through the mouth that knocked out several of his teeth and left a deep cleft on his left cheek.

By 1758 he was settled near Winchester, Virginia, still following his old pursuits. His favorite hangout was a tavern near Battletown (The Battletown Inn, perhaps?), a place that may have got its name from the numerous frontier brawls in which Daniel Morgan was a leading figure. He was often on the wrong side of the law during this time and appeared in court more than once on such charges as arson, horse stealing, assault and battery, and resisting arrest. One wonders if there was a charge of gunpowder in him that had to be worked out, for as time went on he showed more of his responsible side.

By 1763 he claimed a sweetheart, Abigail Curry, and the two set up housekeeping and produced two daughters before ever going through a legal ceremony pronouncing them man and wife. But Abigail probably had a lot to do with settling him down, and teaching him to read and write as well. By 1774, when they finally married, Daniel was a prosperous farmer, militia captain, and respected citizen of the community. When, in 1775, the first Continental Congress authorized the muster of two companies of riflemen from Virginia, Captain Morgan was the unanimous choice of his county to raise and lead one of them. Morgan's 96 riflemen trekked 600 miles from Winchester to Boston, arriving in plenty of time for the Battle of Bunker Hill. The American rifle, a frontiersman's weapon, was scarcely known in New England and Morgan's company caused quite a stir. More to the point, they helped create an almost pathological fear of rifle companies among the British rank and file, who suffered most from the weapon's range and accuracy.

Morgan soon attracted the notice of George Washington and other officers of the Continental army's high command, and was chosen to serve as commander of three rifle companies bound for Quebec. Congress had hatched a grand scheme to neutralize Canada as a British staging ground by simply bringing it into the patriot fold--a 14th colony, as it were. The plan called for a double-pronged attack on Montreal and Quebec, led by General Richard Montgomery and Colonel Benedict Arnold, respectively. This was supposed to be easier than it sounds, for neither city was especially well-defended.

On September 25, 1775, the Quebec expedition set off from Fort Western, Maine (near Augusta) into the howling Canadian wilderness. It was a nightmare. Their route followed the Kennebec River into Canada, where the "height of land" forced a four-mile portage of their heavy, cumbersome bateaux (oversize canoes) to the Chaudiere, or "Cauldron" River. Roads did not exist there, and bogs and fallen timber impeded almost every step of the way. Both rivers were barely navigable. Game was extremely scarce and before it was all over the soldiers were reduced to eating dogs and leather. Two and a half months after they began, the expedition had thinned from 1050 able-bodied soldiers to 675.

During the march, Captain Morgan distinguished himself as a driver of men who nonetheless retained the common touch and kept their respect. Ordinary soldiers tended to work a little harder and push themselves a little farther when Morgan was leading them. On November 10 they camped on the St. Lawrence, within view of Quebec. General Montgomery joined them after securing the city of Montreal, and it was decided to attack Quebec during the next snowstorm. The weather did not oblige until New Year's Eve, when a blizzard blew in to mask the approach of the Americans. Montgomery was to lead a column from the south and Arnold from the north, the two columns to unite just inside the walls of the "lower city" before pressing on to storm the walls of Quebec proper. Before dawn on January 1, Arnold and Morgan at the head of the north column began their approach.

The delay allowed the British to rally and organize a quick defense, which soon became an offense when they surrounded Morgan's column on the narrow street. Even then, he refused to give up--backed up against a wall in a one-man defense, he dared the British to come on. Finally, under the urging of his own men, he handed over his sword to a priest in the crowd. Prisoners of rank generally received courteous treatment until they were exchanged with prisoners of equal rank from the other side. In Morgan's case an exchange did not occur until September 1776, when he was returned to the Continental army.

Washington, by now well aware of Morgan's abilities, used his rifle corps throughout the following winter and spring as light infantry to harry the British foragers and rear guard. By late summer, the Americans faced a threat in New York state as British General John Burgoyne marched from Canada with the intention seizing the Hudson River, thus dividing New England from the rest of the colonies. General Horatio Gates was dispatched to organize and lead the American resistance, and Colonel Morgan with his rifle corps accompanied him by special request. The two armies clashed near Saratoga, New York, in October 1777, in a two-day battle generally considered the turning point of the Revolution. Horatio Gates, more administrator than soldier, coordinated forces but left the fighting to Morgan and Benedict Arnold, both outstanding combat commanders.

On the first day, at Freeman's Farm, the Virginia riflemen attacked and drove off Burgoyne's Indian scouts. Later they cut up an entire regiment and rendered the British artillery corps useless by picking off the crew one by one. The second day, at Bemis Heights, Morgan led a flanking movement to the British right that, with Arnold's coordinating movement on the left, wrapped up the entire army and forced Burgoyne to surrender. It was a decisive victory, won when Americans needed victory in the worst way, and it played no small part in influencing the French government to officially enter the war on the side of the struggling colonies.

Morgan returned to Washington's army covered with glory, and almost immediately floundered in army politics. He felt that his accomplishments had earned him a promotion and a larger command; a special brigade of light infantry was then forming, and he wanted it. The problem: he was a Virginian, and Virginia was thought by Congress to have fielded enough generals. Jealousy and rivalry among the colonies prompted Congress to offer the command to Anthony Wayne, a Pennsylvanian.

The "Hero of Saratoga," deeply offended, slung his rifle over his shoulder and returned home to Winchester on indefinite furlough. Touchiness was one of his faults, but he benefited from the rest. The rigors of the Quebec campaign had caught up with him, in the racking pains and tortures of rheumatism. Over the next year Abigail treated him with cold baths and herbal remedies, but Morgan would never again be free of back problems. Though physically removed from the war he kept in touch through correspondence with his many friends, including General Horatio Gates, a near neighbor. When Gates was appointed to command the army of the South, he urged Morgan to join him as combat commander.

Unfortunately for his country, Daniel was in no condition to respond at first; only after Gates, through spectacular mishandling of his field forces at Camden, had lost yet another American army did Morgan pull himself together and head south. The Continental Congress had by now seen the error of its ways and promoted him to Brigadier General. When he arrived at headquarters in Charlotte, there was but little to command. After its near-annihilation at Camden, the army of the Southern Department was building up with agonizing slowness, and of the total number present, only a little over half were fit for duty. Foraging and raiding occupied their time until the end of the year, when a change of command promised better things for the future.

General Nathanael Greene arrived early in December to take over from Horatio Gates. Greene, raised a Quaker in Rhode Island, had jumped into the war at its beginning and quickly earned the respect of George Washington, who regarded him as one of his most valuable officers. He was Washington's choice to head the southern department from the beginning, but Congress had liked Gates better. Now that Gates's shortcomings were obvious to everybody, Nathanael Greene was to have his chance.

It was obvious to all that the new commander seemed to have a sure grasp of logistics, terrain, and discipline, but only a few weeks into his command he performed what appeared to be a fundamental error: in the face of the superior army of Cornwallis, he divided his own puny force. Charlotte, stripped clean by two successive armies, was no longer able to support them. Greene himself retreated with the sick, halt and lame to a camp on the Cheraw, while Daniel Morgan took command of the more able-bodied men--about 600, plus a small cavalry unit under Colonel William Washington--and marched them westward along the Broad River.

Morgan's orders were to keep his own little army together, draw into his force any scattered militia units that might be attracted to him, and stand ready to meet any British threat. This was a vague objective, and it made him nervous. Very soon something else made him nervous--the intelligence that Colonel Banastre Tarleton was chasing him with the body of Tory cutthroats known as the British Legion, along with two regiments of British regulars. Tarleton enjoyed the most formidable reputation of any British commander in the entire war: no one moved faster or struck harder, and on more than one occasion he was known to have cut down American troops even after they had surrendered. Morgan probably knew he could outsmart the Colonel, but had not so much confidence in his men.

The core of his little army was the Maryland and Delaware regiment, seasoned soldiers commanded by Colonel John Eager Howard, who had proved their worth over and over again. But the militia groups who were joining them daily were just the opposite of "seasoned"--what they did best was eat, and they were known to turn tail and run in the face of well-trained British bayonets. Their numbers brought his total up to around 1000, but the worth of a militiaman, in Morgan's view, was only half a trained soldier's.

Through the first half of January, 1781, Tarleton gained on him, never backing off even though severely impeded by the steady rains that swelled every creek and river. By the 14th, Morgan broke his camp on Thicketty Creek and began moving northward. He had sought permission from Nathanael Greene to march southwest into Georgia and build up his troops, but he had an idea his superior would not go for the plan and Tarleton was almost on him anyway. Early on January 16, the Americans had to leave their breakfast still cooking on the coals in order to escape Tarleton's advance guard closing in on them.

Morgan decided it was time to turn and fight, and pressed northward looking for a favorable spot to take a stand. Late in the afternoon he came to a rolling pasture known as "the Cowpens," and decided it would suit his purpose. Some of his contemporaries and later historians have criticized his choice of ground, because the area was wide open to any flanking movement and the Broad River, less than five miles at his back, would have cut off any retreat. Morgan later explained that this was precisely his intention--he figured the militia would stand and fight if they knew there was no escape.

That evening, the general came up with a battle plan that made the best use of militia in combination with his Continentals. If the plan seems glaringly simple to today's armchair strategists, we must bear in mind that it went against the military conventions of his day, and 18th-century warfare was nothing if not conventional. Since he had no artillery, he placed about 150 riflemen in a picket line shielded by trees, to perform the "softening up" that artillery was supposed to do. On his front line, he strung out the militia under the command of Colonel Andrew Pickens, with a very important proviso: they were to fire two volleys, and two only. Then they were to retire to their left and take cover in the shallow swale at the rear. About 150 yards behind the militia were the Maryland and Delaware Continentals commanded by John Eager Howard, who could be trusted to hold that line as long as it was humanly possible to do so. Colonel Washington's cavalry, about 80 strong, was held in reserve at the rear.

The night before he expected Tarleton to attack, Morgan went the rounds of the camp and made pep talks around the cooking fires, explaining carefully to the militiamen what he expected them to do and, for good measure, displaying the scars on his back. He claimed that the British drummer who laid those stripes on him had miscounted; instead of 500, he'd only received 499. So King George owed him one, but Morgan, "the Old Wagoner," anticipating cracking his own whip in the morning. He jollied, exhorted, and praised his men throughout the night; seldom in history have troops been better prepared for an anticipated action.

Tarleton arrived on the scene at about 7 a.m. on January 17 and began deploying his troops almost immediately. While his artillery--two six-pounders--commenced to hurl grapeshot toward the militia lines, a detachment of cavalry was sent to break up the snipers sheltering in the trees. Well-aimed rifle fire took a heavy toll of the horsemen, but the British artillery succeeded in breaking up the skirmish line. Tarleton then ordered a frontal assault by foot soldiers of the 7th Regiment and the British Legion infantry. The American militia stood their ground just long enough to deliver the promised two volleys, and their massed firepower opened gaping holes in the British ranks. Then the militia broke up in a more or less orderly fashion and made for the rear, where they might have kept going except that General Morgan and Colonel Pickens were there to keep them together.

The British, meanwhile, assumed that the retreat was a rout and pressed their attack on up the slope to the waiting Continentals. Here they came up against formidable resistance and for some time the two armies poured fire on each other with neither side giving ground. Frustrated at his inability to break through, Tarleton ordered his reserve corps to move up the slope double-time and outflank the American right. These were the 71st Highlanders, who customarily marched into battle with bagpipes squalling. At their approach, John Eager Howard ordered his right flank to turn to meet the attack. The order was misunderstood; instead of turning, the American right began an orderly retreat. The British, anticipating a quick victory, shed their famous discipline and broke ranks as they closed in for the kill.

At this point Morgan dashed up on horseback and, in Howard's words, "expressed apprehension of the event." (We can just bet he did!) Improvising quickly once he had grasped the situation, Morgan established another line beyond the crest of the slope for the Continentals to re-form. No sooner had they done this than the British made their last charge. The Americans turned and fired, then counter-charged. At the same time, Colonel Washington's cavalry attacked the British right and folded it. Under this furious assault, soldiers of the 7th and the Legion began throwing down their arms, and even themselves, in surrender. On the British left, the 71st Highlanders were giving a good account of themselves until a sudden influx of Americans outflanked the outflankers. Andrew Pickens had rallied the militia and delivered them where they were most needed, thus wrapping up the entire British army in a classic double envelopment.

Tarleton tried to save his artillery, but was too late even for that; he escaped with only about fifty troopers and a broken reputation. The entire action had taken about an hour. Cowpens is regarded as the tactical masterpiece of the Revolution--the plan was perfectly adapted for the men and terrain, the coordinating units worked beautifully together, and at a critical point when the outcome was iffy, luck or Providence stepped in. Also, Tarleton played directly into Morgan's hands. His forte was the swift approach and head-on charge, tactics that Morgan anticipated and used to his own advantage.

But stunning as the victory was, the General did not linger to celebrate; knowing that Lord Cornwallis would soon be after him, he was on the road by noon on the same day as the battle. Before long his rheumatism flared up again and to that was added the misery of hemorrhoids; after a week on the road he could no longer ride. He held his army together until its rendezvous with Greene's, but soon after he applied for a furlough. Greene discharged him most reluctantly, and Daniel headed home for another series of cold baths. The War had only eight more months to run, and he had done as much as any one man to bring about its favorable conclusion. He recovered in time to take the field very briefly in the Virginia skirmishing that led eventually to Yorktown, but even that proved too much for him.

In July of 1781 he retired for good. Daniel Morgan lived out the rest of his life in peace and prosperity at his home, "Soldier's Rest," near Winchester. In 1794 he commanded a company charged with putting down the short-lived Whiskey Rebellion, an uprising of backcountry farmers incensed over a federal tax on distilled grains. He served one term in Congress, and one term was enough. A staunch Federalist like his hero George Washington, he became disgusted with Jeffersonian Democrats--"a parsall of egg-sucking dogs," as he termed them. He died in 1802 at the age of 66 (or 67). In the opinion of at least one historian, America never produced a better field commander.

Sources:

Higginbotham, Don, Daniel Morgan: Revolutionary Rifleman. Chapel Hill, 1961.

Buchanan, John. The Road to Guilford Court House: the American Revolution in the Carolinas. New York, 1997

© 1998 Janie B. Cheaney dgccmaster