Jill Holtzman Vogel - 27th District Digest 3.0
Upon entering my house this afternoon and looking in the mailbox, I noticed a nice, slick, 4-page flyer and knew almost immediately it was the long awaited "District Digest" sent out by the Jill Holtzman Campaign.
For those that don't know, Jill is running for the 27th District Senate seat currently held by Sen. Russ Potts. The election is in November of 2007 and this is the third mailing the campaign has sent out.
This mailer, like many, is mostly fluff. However, we were given some insight into what Holtzman might do if she were to be elected State Senator for the 27th District - or were we?
Case in point; On Taxes Jill says:
Now, call me crazy, but I would like to know how Holtzman plans to fix the worst transportation and education crisis in the Commonwealth's history. I didn't see anything specifically mentioned in the mailer. If elected, will she cut spending? If so, where will she trim the budget?
On Growth:
For those that don't know, Jill is running for the 27th District Senate seat currently held by Sen. Russ Potts. The election is in November of 2007 and this is the third mailing the campaign has sent out.
This mailer, like many, is mostly fluff. However, we were given some insight into what Holtzman might do if she were to be elected State Senator for the 27th District - or were we?
Case in point; On Taxes Jill says:
Now, call me crazy, but I would like to know how Holtzman plans to fix the worst transportation and education crisis in the Commonwealth's history. I didn't see anything specifically mentioned in the mailer. If elected, will she cut spending? If so, where will she trim the budget?
On Growth:
Again, she makes many valid points but it's the same old, same old. I need specifics, which are noticeably absent.
The other notable part of the mailer is Holtzman's Exploratory Committee. Wow! It's a who's who of 27th District Republican's. I know some folks were thinking of challenging her in the primary, but perhaps they should think again. I mean, who's not on the committee? Well, the only three I noticed were Mark tate, Phil Griffin and Sen. Russ Potts but it's still early.
I still maintain that a moderate Democrat could give her a tough race. However, the Democratic Party in the 27th is pitifully organized so that's not likely to happen.
Stay tuned for District Digest Volume 4. Hopefully, it will contain more specifics on what Holtzman will do if elected.
posted by RBV @ 5:07 PM
16 comments
16 Comments:
Don't rush to assume all those endorsees have actually endorsed her, and do not assume that she'll go unchallenged.
Another candidate will emerge- and I'm not talking about Mr.Tate, and certainly not Mr. Griffin, nor ole' Russ, but HE will give her more than a run for all that money she's got in the PRIMARY.
First HE'll run to the left. Then HE'll run to the right. Then HE'll run circles around Little Miss Two Last Names.
Hold on to your hats kiddies, this race is soon about to get very very interesting.
And when will this masked man, I mean candidate reveal his identity?
What a fake!I have also read her comments on growth and this is really going to come back to bite her because she was in charge of the largest pro-growth organization in the valley a few election cycles ago. Many big business and construction companies were part of this organization. The Organization was called Citizens for Responsible and Balanced Growth and don't let that name fool you. This is public info and look up the info youselves. Just look at the donors. About every big construction company and such donated and Jill made a nice little profit off the operation. She has been responsible for some of this growth that she has criticized in the Digest. Her growth postion in the District Digest #3 is disonest and she will be called to account for it. I personally have no problem with a pro growth candidate but this blatent dishonesty just shows she will say and do absolutely anything to be elected. I also believe Mr. Blindside may have a point as I have heard things. We shall see.
Uh oh spaghetti o's.
I have heard Russ has been doing surveys as well. If anyone hears a survey just write down the name of the authorizing Committee and this can be looked up.
I have also read this lastest district digest. I will say this about her listed support. It is not all it appears to be. Much of this is very soft support and will not hold under close scrutiny. So far a few family and close friends from her RNC days and her husbands lobby connections have donated most of her cash. In my opinion she is a Scandal waiting to happen. There are plenty of dots to connect within her listed support and fundraising practices. Just look and see. These ideological conservatives listed in the Digest #3 are not stupid. They follow the money as well. These guys are not supporting her because she is ideologically in line with them. Look into this a little deeper and see for yourselves.
Jill is in full 72 hr. campaign operations mode right now. Has she been receiving updates from Russ? Her Daddy and Russ have been friends for a long time. Daddy Holtzman gave Russ a good deal of money in the past. She would'nt be spending all this money right now if she did not have inside info that something was coming after the new budget is signed in probably less than 1 month. All this while VCAP is looking the other way and holding their collective noses.
A sensible Dem. like Herring or even a democrat in the old time traditional sense (if there are any left), would beat Holtzman in my opinion because she has way too many "skeletons in the closet"
Holtzman's $$$ situation is going to play out in one of two ways.
1) If she doesn't have a primary challenger, which is unlikely, she will be able to save up for the general.
Then again, it all comes down to what type of primary will be held. Will it be a convention or an open primary? A quirky state law allows the incumbent to choose what type to have. The current incumbent is Potts. I guess the Party gets to choose if Potts doesn't run, but I am not sure.
We've addressed all this before in this post.
2) She doesn't have to spend a lot on a primary and she can save up.
The other risk she runs is becomming a candidate in the mold of Mick Stanton - we all know what happened there. The Party went conservative and the district ended up with Herring.
Plus, the Dem's are likely going to have momentum on their side after the elections this November. I am not saying that they are going to win big in Virginia, but they will certainly unseat a bunch of folks in Congress.
Also, whoever the Democratic candidate is will have a bunch of ammo in the form of Mark Warner and Gov. Kaine - two very popular guys in Loudoun County.
Not John Behan is correct. Holtzman could peak too early if she's not careful.
Red Bull, good analysis. If Potts does not run I believe there is some type of 27th District leadership committee that will pick the format. I can pretty much guarantee a open primary if Potts finishes out his term. If Potts quits in a couple of weeks we could be looking at a convention or a firehouse primary.
As for your comment on Staton, Jill is currently pandering to folks to the right of Staton. Who in the heck really knows were Jill stands because she is an opportunist at heart. In the past she has said many different things to many different people. (See Her Pro-Choice leaning comments at the Patrick Henry Caucus in 03) Of course the VCAP folks will deny this happened.
Holtzman is actually trying to win an election by connecting with Bush..bwahahahahhaha
RedBull, theres a big difference btw a eastern loudoun seat and a seat that has frederick and fauquier county as its anchor.
During the last general election in 03 loudon, fauquier and frederick almost cancel themselves out with Frederick holding about 2 thousand more. A possible candidate from Frederick-Winchester area with name regognition has a definite advantage going into the process. Without a Win-Frederick candidate voter turnout in this area will be very low and almost anything would be possible.
GopHokie, you are correct, but circumstances were a little different in 2003.
You should know better than anyone that the population has changed A LOT since 2003. Most of the people moving into Frederick County and Fauquier County migrated from mostly Democratic NOVA.
There's no doubt that the 27th is a "red" district but a well funded, well organized Democrat could make it a race worth watching.
onewhoknows is also correct in that a Republican from Fred/Winc could have a slight edge.
Stay tuned. The fun has just begun!
RedBull, those people are from democratic NOVA but many of them are probably Republicans escaping the high taxes.
Frederick County does not seem to be losing any GOP strength.
I agree the dems could make inroads if they ran someone from the opposite end of the district from our person; but I just cannot imagine a dem winning Frederick or Fauquier, which is basically what would be required to win.
Lots of blog activity that Tate is gay - a rumor that has been out there for a while. Will be death blow for mark. First, he's too dumb to file his campaign finance reports, now he's sleeping with men. Great - sure glad i voted for him last time (sarcasm). Pottsie might be too liberal - but the last time I checked, he wasnt violating any of G*d's laws!
Va. Candidate Got Improper Tax Break
Vogel Unaware of Condo Deduction
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/09/AR2007100902119_pf.html
By Sandhya Somashekhar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 10, 2007; B02
A state Senate candidate in Virginia has been improperly receiving a tax break on a home she owns in Northwest Washington, according to D.C. land records and interviews with city officials.
Since 2005, city records show Jill Holtzman Vogel (R) and her husband have received a homestead deduction on the property taxes they pay on a condominium they own near Washington Circle. To get the $60,000 annual deduction, the owner must declare the home as their primary residence.
According to numerous public statements, and her Web site [www.votejill.com], Vogel and her family live in a house the couple owns in the Fauquier County town of Upperville, where she is running for office. Holtzman Vogel is running against Democrat Karen Schultz in the 27th Senate District, which includes parts of Fauquier and Loudoun counties.
Holtzman Vogel and her husband, Alex Vogel, said yesterday that they were not aware that they have been receiving the credit, saying the company that handled the settlement of the condominium probably filled out the paperwork. They asked city tax officials yesterday to end the credit on their home.
"We sure as hell didn't ask for it," said Alex Vogel, a GOP strategist. "I don't claim D.C. as my primary residence in any way. That's insane."
The couple paid $995,000 for the condominium at The Residences at the Ritz-Carlton in November 2005. It was a place to sleep occasionally instead of commuting back to Upperville every night, he said. Vogel said he gets a tax statement from the D.C. government in the mail, but that he doesn't look at it. He said he just files it. The mortgage company pays the property taxes.
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